Microsoft Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| MSF Stock | EUR 364.80 10.30 2.91% |
Microsoft Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Microsoft stock prices and determine the direction of Microsoft's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Microsoft's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the value of RSI of Microsoft's share price is approaching 35. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Microsoft, making its price go up or down. Momentum 35
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Microsoft hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Microsoft from the perspective of Microsoft response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Microsoft on the next trading day is expected to be 382.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 458.29. Microsoft after-hype prediction price | EUR 364.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Microsoft |
Microsoft Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Microsoft price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Microsoft using various technical indicators. When you analyze Microsoft charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Microsoft Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Microsoft on the next trading day is expected to be 382.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.51, mean absolute percentage error of 86.59, and the sum of the absolute errors of 458.29.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Microsoft Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Microsoft's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Microsoft Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Microsoft | Microsoft Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Microsoft Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Microsoft's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Microsoft's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 380.78 and 384.94, respectively. We have considered Microsoft's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Microsoft stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Microsoft stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.5716 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 7.513 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0186 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 458.2938 |
Predictive Modules for Microsoft
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Microsoft. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Microsoft After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Microsoft at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Microsoft or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Microsoft, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Microsoft Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Microsoft's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Microsoft's historical news coverage. Microsoft's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 362.72 and 366.88, respectively. We have considered Microsoft's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Microsoft is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Microsoft is based on 3 months time horizon.
Microsoft Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Microsoft is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Microsoft backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Microsoft, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 2.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
364.80 | 364.80 | 0.00 |
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Microsoft Hype Timeline
Microsoft is now traded for 364.80on Hanover Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Microsoft is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.32%. %. The volatility of related hype on Microsoft is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 364.80. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.28. Microsoft last dividend was issued on the 19th of May 2020. The entity had 2:1 split on the 18th of February 2003. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Microsoft to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Microsoft Stock refer to our How to Trade Microsoft Stock guide.Microsoft Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Microsoft's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Microsoft's future price movements. Getting to know how Microsoft's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Microsoft may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GLJ | GRENKELEASING | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.68 | (3.38) | 10.08 | |
| 45P | Playmates Toys Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.00 | (5.00) | 30.02 | |
| QV5 | Canlan Ice Sports | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.62 | 0.05 | 6.92 | (6.67) | 22.51 | |
| 9GY | USWE SPORTS AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.17 | (5.65) | 18.43 | |
| WD5A | TRAVEL LEISURE DL 01 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.41 | 0.02 | 3.36 | (2.71) | 10.76 | |
| 0VD0 | UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 1.90 | (1.92) | 7.56 | |
| UR3 | United Rentals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.44 | (4.59) | 14.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for Microsoft
For every potential investor in Microsoft, whether a beginner or expert, Microsoft's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Microsoft Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Microsoft. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Microsoft's price trends.Microsoft Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Microsoft stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Microsoft could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Microsoft by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Microsoft Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Microsoft stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Microsoft shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Microsoft stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Microsoft entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Microsoft Risk Indicators
The analysis of Microsoft's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Microsoft's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting microsoft stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.08 | |||
| Variance | 4.33 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Microsoft
The number of cover stories for Microsoft depends on current market conditions and Microsoft's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Microsoft is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Microsoft's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Microsoft Stock
When determining whether Microsoft is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Microsoft Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Microsoft Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Microsoft Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Microsoft to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Microsoft Stock refer to our How to Trade Microsoft Stock guide.You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.