Metacrine Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for Metacrine is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Metacrine value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Metacrine Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Metacrine on the next trading day is expected to be 0.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0004, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.92.

Metacrine Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Metacrine stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Metacrine stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Metacrine. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Metacrine. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Metacrine

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Metacrine. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 0.49 0.49 0.49 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 0.40 0.40 0.54 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 0.48 0.49 0.50 Details

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Risk & Return

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Pair Trading with Metacrine

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Metacrine position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Metacrine will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

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