MV Oil Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MVO Stock | USD 1.60 0.22 12.09% |
MVO Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although MV Oil's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of MV Oil's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of MV Oil fundamentals over time.
As of today, the value of relative strength index of MV Oil's share price is approaching 42. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling MV Oil, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.55) | Wall Street Target Price 43 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.52) |
Using MV Oil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MV Oil Trust from the perspective of MV Oil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards MV Oil using MV Oil's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards MVO using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of MV Oil's stock price.
MV Oil Implied Volatility | 5.38 |
MV Oil's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of MV Oil Trust stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if MV Oil's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that MV Oil stock will not fluctuate a lot when MV Oil's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of MV Oil Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 2.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.40. MV Oil after-hype prediction price | USD 1.45 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MV Oil to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 MVO Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast MV Oil's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in MV Oil's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for MV Oil stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current MV Oil's open interest, investors have to compare it to MV Oil's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of MV Oil is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in MVO. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
MV Oil Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MVO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MVO using various technical indicators. When you analyze MVO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MV Oil Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the MV Oil's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2004-12-31 | Previous Quarter 1.1 M | Current Value 1.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 947.6 K |
MV Oil Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of MV Oil Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 2.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MVO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MV Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MV Oil Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MV Oil | MV Oil Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
MV Oil Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MV Oil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MV Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 15.04, respectively. We have considered MV Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MV Oil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MV Oil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.3211 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.318 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.2173 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.3995 |
Predictive Modules for MV Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MV Oil Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MV Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MV Oil After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MV Oil at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MV Oil or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MV Oil, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MV Oil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MV Oil's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MV Oil's historical news coverage. MV Oil's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.07 and 14.22, respectively. We have considered MV Oil's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MV Oil is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MV Oil Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
MV Oil Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MV Oil is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MV Oil backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MV Oil, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.83 | 12.77 | 0.20 | 0.04 | 6 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.60 | 1.45 | 12.12 |
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MV Oil Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January MV Oil Trust is traded for 1.60. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.2, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. MVO is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 1.45. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -12.12%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.83%. The volatility of related hype on MV Oil is about 25540.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.64. About 25.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company last dividend was issued on the 16th of January 2026. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MV Oil to cross-verify your projections.MV Oil Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MV Oil's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MV Oil's future price movements. Getting to know how MV Oil's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MV Oil may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VOC | VOC Energy Trust | 0.01 | 9 per month | 1.80 | 0.02 | 3.97 | (3.39) | 12.84 | |
| PVL | Permianville Royalty Trust | (0.01) | 10 per month | 1.44 | 0.04 | 4.14 | (2.78) | 10.04 | |
| NRT | North European Oil | 0.21 | 7 per month | 2.68 | 0.21 | 7.60 | (4.38) | 22.09 | |
| PRT | PermRock Royalty Trust | (0.02) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.65 | (4.45) | 10.20 | |
| CRT | Cross Timbers Royalty | 0.18 | 7 per month | 1.92 | 0.12 | 5.09 | (4.00) | 12.64 | |
| MTR | Mesa Royalty Trust | (0.07) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.86 | (5.38) | 17.46 | |
| MARPS | Marine Petroleum Trust | 0.05 | 8 per month | 3.21 | (0.01) | 5.56 | (4.08) | 31.24 |
Other Forecasting Options for MV Oil
For every potential investor in MVO, whether a beginner or expert, MV Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MVO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MVO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MV Oil's price trends.MV Oil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MV Oil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MV Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MV Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MV Oil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MV Oil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MV Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MV Oil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MV Oil Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
MV Oil Risk Indicators
The analysis of MV Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MV Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mvo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 7.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 12.24 | |||
| Variance | 149.72 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MV Oil
The number of cover stories for MV Oil depends on current market conditions and MV Oil's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MV Oil is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MV Oil's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MV Oil Short Properties
MV Oil's future price predictability will typically decrease when MV Oil's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MV Oil Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MV Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MV Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11.5 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 17.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MV Oil to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MV Oil. If investors know MVO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MV Oil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.55) | Dividend Share 0.905 | Earnings Share 1.03 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.52) |
The market value of MV Oil Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MVO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MV Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MV Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MV Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MV Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MV Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MV Oil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MV Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.