MV Oil Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MVO Stock | USD 1.40 0.01 0.71% |
MVO Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the value of relative strength index of MV Oil's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using MV Oil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MV Oil Trust from the perspective of MV Oil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MV Oil Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 1.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.98. MV Oil after-hype prediction price | USD 1.41 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MV Oil to cross-verify your projections. MV Oil Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MVO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MVO using various technical indicators. When you analyze MVO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MV Oil Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MV Oil Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 1.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MVO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MV Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MV Oil Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MV Oil | MV Oil Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
MV Oil Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MV Oil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MV Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 14.33, respectively. We have considered MV Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MV Oil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MV Oil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1692 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1178 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.9821 |
Predictive Modules for MV Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MV Oil Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MV Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MV Oil After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MV Oil at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MV Oil or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MV Oil, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MV Oil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MV Oil's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MV Oil's historical news coverage. MV Oil's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.07 and 14.38, respectively. We have considered MV Oil's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MV Oil is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MV Oil Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
MV Oil Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MV Oil is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MV Oil backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MV Oil, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.82 | 12.97 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.40 | 1.41 | 1.40 |
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MV Oil Hype Timeline
On the 9th of February MV Oil Trust is traded for 1.40. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.03. MVO is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 1.41. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -1.4%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.82%. The volatility of related hype on MV Oil is about 36316.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.37. About 25.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company last dividend was issued on the 16th of January 2026. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MV Oil to cross-verify your projections.MV Oil Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MV Oil's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MV Oil's future price movements. Getting to know how MV Oil's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MV Oil may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VOC | VOC Energy Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.71 | 0.02 | 3.72 | (3.15) | 10.25 | |
| PVL | Permianville Royalty Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.59 | (0.05) | 3.43 | (3.31) | 9.00 | |
| NRT | North European Oil | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.96 | 0.15 | 7.35 | (4.38) | 21.03 | |
| PRT | PermRock Royalty Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.91 | (0.03) | 3.81 | (4.75) | 13.37 | |
| CRT | Cross Timbers Royalty | (0.25) | 5 per month | 1.75 | 0.05 | 4.61 | (3.74) | 12.53 | |
| MTR | Mesa Royalty Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.89 | (0.01) | 5.86 | (4.90) | 17.13 | |
| MARPS | Marine Petroleum Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.99 | 0.03 | 5.56 | (2.95) | 31.24 |
Other Forecasting Options for MV Oil
For every potential investor in MVO, whether a beginner or expert, MV Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MVO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MVO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MV Oil's price trends.MV Oil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MV Oil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MV Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MV Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MV Oil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MV Oil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MV Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MV Oil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MV Oil Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 8490.69 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.11) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.4 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.4 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) |
MV Oil Risk Indicators
The analysis of MV Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MV Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mvo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 8.55 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 12.97 | |||
| Variance | 168.25 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MV Oil
The number of cover stories for MV Oil depends on current market conditions and MV Oil's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MV Oil is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MV Oil's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MV Oil Short Properties
MV Oil's future price predictability will typically decrease when MV Oil's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MV Oil Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MV Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MV Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11.5 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 17.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MV Oil to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Will Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sector continue expanding? Could MVO diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MV Oil. Expected growth trajectory for MVO significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every MV Oil data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Understanding MV Oil Trust requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects MVO's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what MV Oil's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push MV Oil's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that MV Oil's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether MV Oil represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, MV Oil's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.