Methanex Stock Forward View - 8 Period Moving Average

MX Stock  CAD 89.55  1.18  1.34%   
8 Period Moving Average is applied to Methanex's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. The 8 Period Moving Average model projects Methanex at 86.98 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. This 8 Period Moving Average output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
The eight-period moving average forecast for Methanex replaces each daily closing price with the mean of that value and the eight preceding observations. This wider window produces a smoother series that filters out short-term volatility.

8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 7th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average model forecasts Methanex at 86.98 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 3.60 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.05 , and sum of absolute errors of 191.03 .
This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Methanex's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

Methanex's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The projected band runs from roughly 82.71 on the downside to about 91.25 on the upside. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Market Value
89.55
86.98
Expected Value
91.25

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the 8 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for Methanex stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria106.4327
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.8621
MADMean absolute deviation3.6043
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0451
SAESum of the absolute errors191.0263
The eight-period window effectively dampens daily peaks and troughs in Methanex price data, making the underlying trend more visible. However, the model can only be used reliably for one or two periods ahead. A flat forecast line in a trending market indicates the smoothing window is too wide for the current price dynamics.

Other Forecasting Options for Methanex

The distribution of Methanex's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This reveals hidden support and resistance zones in Methanex's chart that simple price charts miss.

Methanex Related Equities

The peer firms below within the Materials space frame Methanex's pricing and running costs in context. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge Methanex's relative financial strength.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Methanex Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Methanex stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in Methanex.

Methanex Risk Indicators

Assessing Methanex's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for methanex stock. The level of risk embedded in Methanex's feeds directly into exposure calibration.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Methanex Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Methanex reveal whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. When applied, these measures clarify when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding72.61 million
Cash And Short Term Investments428.05 million

More Resources for Methanex Stock Analysis

A structured review of Methanex begins with its financial statements and broad trends. The dataset reflects Methanex's reporting across available periods.