Methanex Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MX Stock | CAD 85.11 -4.44 -4.96% |
Double Exponential Smoothing is applied to Methanex's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. The Double Exponential Smoothing model projects Methanex at 85.94 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. This Double Exponential Smoothing output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing model forecasts Methanex at 85.94 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 2.65 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and sum of absolute errors of 159.05 .This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Methanex's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Methanex | Methanex Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Methanex's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The projected band runs from roughly 81.57 on the downside to about 90.30 on the upside. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Double Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for Methanex stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.5897 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.6508 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0348 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 159.0494 |
Other Forecasting Options for Methanex
The distribution of Methanex's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This reveals hidden support and resistance zones in Methanex's chart that simple price charts miss.Methanex Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Materials space frame Methanex's pricing and running costs in context. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge Methanex's relative financial strength.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Methanex Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Methanex stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in Methanex.
Methanex Risk Indicators
Assessing Methanex's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for methanex stock. The level of risk embedded in Methanex's feeds directly into exposure calibration.
| Mean Deviation | 3.11 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.27 | |||
| Variance | 18.26 | |||
| Downside Variance | 22.29 | |||
| Semi Variance | 17.04 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -3.30 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Methanex Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Methanex reveal whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. When applied, these measures clarify when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 72.61 million | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 428.05 million |