Mexco Energy Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| MXC Stock | USD 10.51 0.79 6.99% |
Mexco Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Mexco Energy stock prices and determine the direction of Mexco Energy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Mexco Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The value of relative strength index of Mexco Energy's share price is at 51. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Mexco Energy, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.15) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.05 |
Using Mexco Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mexco Energy from the perspective of Mexco Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Mexco Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 10.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.56. Mexco Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 10.52 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mexco Energy to cross-verify your projections. Mexco Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Mexco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mexco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mexco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Mexco Energy Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Mexco Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 10.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mexco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mexco Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mexco Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Mexco Energy | Mexco Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Mexco Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mexco Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mexco Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.84 and 15.01, respectively. We have considered Mexco Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mexco Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mexco Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.5105 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4284 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0442 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.5622 |
Predictive Modules for Mexco Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mexco Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mexco Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mexco Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Mexco Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mexco Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mexco Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Mexco Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Mexco Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mexco Energy's historical news coverage. Mexco Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.43 and 14.61, respectively. We have considered Mexco Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Mexco Energy is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mexco Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Mexco Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mexco Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mexco Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mexco Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 4.09 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 6 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.51 | 10.52 | 0.10 |
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Mexco Energy Hype Timeline
On the 31st of January Mexco Energy is traded for 10.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Mexco is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 10.52 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is forecasted to be 0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.25%. The volatility of related hype on Mexco Energy is about 11602.84%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.52. The company reported the last year's revenue of 7.36 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.71 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 5.87 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mexco Energy to cross-verify your projections.Mexco Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Mexco Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mexco Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Mexco Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mexco Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BATL | Battalion Oil Corp | 0.09 | 5 per month | 3.03 | 0.14 | 9.17 | (6.98) | 228.01 | |
| EONR | EON Resources | (0.01) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 9.09 | (7.27) | 22.44 | |
| TMDE | TMD Energy Limited | 0.03 | 9 per month | 6.40 | 0.03 | 8.00 | (10.87) | 160.91 | |
| BANL | CBL International Limited | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 4.65 | (5.71) | 23.38 | |
| CKX | CKX Lands | 0.30 | 7 per month | 2.18 | 0.01 | 3.61 | (3.43) | 13.77 | |
| PN | Skycorp Solar Group | (0.02) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 8.33 | (7.89) | 39.11 | |
| BRN | Barnwell Industries | 0.02 | 8 per month | 3.39 | 0.01 | 7.38 | (5.22) | 19.84 | |
| VIVK | Vivakor | (0.01) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 16.00 | (21.98) | 112.20 | |
| TPET | Trio Petroleum Corp | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.32 | (6.80) | 32.43 | |
| SKYQ | Sky Quarry | (0.05) | 8 per month | 8.64 | 0.03 | 17.65 | (14.29) | 125.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for Mexco Energy
For every potential investor in Mexco, whether a beginner or expert, Mexco Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mexco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mexco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mexco Energy's price trends.Mexco Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mexco Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mexco Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mexco Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mexco Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mexco Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mexco Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mexco Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mexco Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Mexco Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mexco Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mexco Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mexco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.98 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.01 | |||
| Variance | 16.1 | |||
| Downside Variance | 16.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.78 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.26) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Mexco Energy
The number of cover stories for Mexco Energy depends on current market conditions and Mexco Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mexco Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mexco Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Mexco Energy Short Properties
Mexco Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Mexco Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mexco Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mexco Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mexco Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mexco Energy to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Mexco Stock refer to our How to Trade Mexco Stock guide.You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Will Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sector continue expanding? Could Mexco diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mexco Energy. Expected growth trajectory for Mexco significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Mexco Energy data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.15) | Earnings Share 0.79 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.05 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Mexco Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mexco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mexco Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mexco Energy's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Mexco Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mexco Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Mexco Energy's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Mexco Energy represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Mexco Energy's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.