Samindo Resources Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MYOH Stock | IDR 1,600 105.00 7.02% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Samindo Resources Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 1,638 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 827.97. Samindo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Samindo |
Samindo Resources Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Samindo Resources Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 1,638 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.57, mean absolute percentage error of 402.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 827.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Samindo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Samindo Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Samindo Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Samindo Resources | Samindo Resources Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Samindo Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Samindo Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Samindo Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,636 and 1,640, respectively. We have considered Samindo Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Samindo Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Samindo Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.1082 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 13.5732 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0099 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 827.9651 |
Predictive Modules for Samindo Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Samindo Resources Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Samindo Resources
For every potential investor in Samindo, whether a beginner or expert, Samindo Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Samindo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Samindo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Samindo Resources' price trends.Samindo Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Samindo Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Samindo Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Samindo Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Samindo Resources Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Samindo Resources' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Samindo Resources' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Samindo Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Samindo Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Samindo Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Samindo Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Samindo Resources Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Samindo Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of Samindo Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Samindo Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting samindo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Variance | 3.73 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.07 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.19) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Samindo Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether Samindo Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Samindo with respect to the benefits of owning Samindo Resources security.