Northern Dynasty Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| NAK Stock | USD 2.04 0.22 9.73% |
Northern Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Northern Dynasty's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Northern Dynasty's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Northern Dynasty fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength momentum indicator of Northern Dynasty's share price is approaching 49. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Northern Dynasty, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.01) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.08) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.04) | Wall Street Target Price 2.5186 |
Using Northern Dynasty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Northern Dynasty Minerals from the perspective of Northern Dynasty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Northern Dynasty using Northern Dynasty's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Northern using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Northern Dynasty's stock price.
Northern Dynasty Implied Volatility | 1.73 |
Northern Dynasty's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Northern Dynasty Minerals stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Northern Dynasty's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Northern Dynasty stock will not fluctuate a lot when Northern Dynasty's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Northern Dynasty Minerals on the next trading day is expected to be 2.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.78. Northern Dynasty after-hype prediction price | USD 2.03 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northern Dynasty to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Northern contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Northern Dynasty Minerals will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.11% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Northern Dynasty trading at USD 2.04, that is roughly USD 0.002206 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Northern Dynasty's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Northern Dynasty Minerals options at the current volatility level of 1.73%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Northern Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Northern Dynasty's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Northern Dynasty's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Northern Dynasty stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Northern Dynasty's open interest, investors have to compare it to Northern Dynasty's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Northern Dynasty is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Northern. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Northern Dynasty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Northern price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Northern using various technical indicators. When you analyze Northern charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Northern Dynasty Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Northern Dynasty Minerals on the next trading day is expected to be 2.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Northern Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Northern Dynasty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Northern Dynasty Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Northern Dynasty | Northern Dynasty Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Northern Dynasty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Northern Dynasty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Northern Dynasty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 6.98, respectively. We have considered Northern Dynasty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Northern Dynasty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Northern Dynasty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.3761 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1276 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.065 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.7834 |
Predictive Modules for Northern Dynasty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northern Dynasty Minerals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Northern Dynasty After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Northern Dynasty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Northern Dynasty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Northern Dynasty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Northern Dynasty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Northern Dynasty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Northern Dynasty's historical news coverage. Northern Dynasty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.10 and 6.72, respectively. We have considered Northern Dynasty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Northern Dynasty is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Northern Dynasty Minerals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Northern Dynasty Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Northern Dynasty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Northern Dynasty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Northern Dynasty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 4.69 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.04 | 2.03 | 0.49 |
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Northern Dynasty Hype Timeline
On the 2nd of February Northern Dynasty Minerals is traded for 2.04. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Northern is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 2.03. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.49%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.32%. The volatility of related hype on Northern Dynasty is about 9770.83%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.02. About 21.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.1. Northern Dynasty Minerals had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 2:1 split on the March 16, 1998. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northern Dynasty to cross-verify your projections.Northern Dynasty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Northern Dynasty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Northern Dynasty's future price movements. Getting to know how Northern Dynasty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Northern Dynasty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CRML | Critical Metals Corp | 0.14 | 3 per month | 6.98 | 0.04 | 20.05 | (11.25) | 50.50 | |
| GSM | Ferroglobe PLC | 0.06 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 5.66 | (5.47) | 19.69 | |
| LAC | Lithium Americas Corp | 0.09 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.25 | (7.45) | 19.05 | |
| SLSR | Solaris Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.29 | 0.18 | 5.95 | (3.72) | 13.58 | |
| CNL | Collective Mining | (0.18) | 10 per month | 3.99 | 0.15 | 5.49 | (6.21) | 17.80 | |
| BAK | Braskem SA Class | 0.03 | 29 per month | 2.83 | 0.10 | 8.68 | (4.87) | 27.76 | |
| CMP | Compass Minerals International | (0.29) | 9 per month | 3.05 | 0.17 | 4.98 | (3.29) | 19.48 | |
| UAN | CVR Partners LP | (0.18) | 13 per month | 2.63 | 0.09 | 3.68 | (1.72) | 18.65 | |
| SLI | Standard Lithium | 0.04 | 33 per month | 5.14 | 0.05 | 6.94 | (9.50) | 24.43 | |
| UAMY | United States Antimony | (0.19) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 15.85 | (12.44) | 32.66 |
Other Forecasting Options for Northern Dynasty
For every potential investor in Northern, whether a beginner or expert, Northern Dynasty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Northern Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Northern. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Northern Dynasty's price trends.Northern Dynasty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Northern Dynasty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Northern Dynasty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Northern Dynasty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Northern Dynasty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Northern Dynasty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Northern Dynasty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Northern Dynasty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Northern Dynasty Minerals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Northern Dynasty Risk Indicators
The analysis of Northern Dynasty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Northern Dynasty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting northern stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.72 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.11 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.7 | |||
| Variance | 22.11 | |||
| Downside Variance | 21.1 | |||
| Semi Variance | 16.88 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.60) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Northern Dynasty
The number of cover stories for Northern Dynasty depends on current market conditions and Northern Dynasty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Northern Dynasty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Northern Dynasty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Northern Dynasty Short Properties
Northern Dynasty's future price predictability will typically decrease when Northern Dynasty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Northern Dynasty Minerals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Northern Dynasty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northern Dynasty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 537.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 16.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northern Dynasty to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Is Diversified Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northern Dynasty. Anticipated expansion of Northern directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Northern Dynasty assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
The market value of Northern Dynasty Minerals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northern Dynasty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northern Dynasty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northern Dynasty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northern Dynasty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Northern Dynasty's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Northern Dynasty should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Northern Dynasty's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.