Neurocrine Biosciences Stock Forward View
| NBIX Stock | USD 138.85 1.20 0.87% |
Neurocrine Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the rsi of Neurocrine Biosciences' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.645 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.3626 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.8088 | EPS Estimate Next Year 9.1334 | Wall Street Target Price 179.5893 |
Using Neurocrine Biosciences hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Neurocrine Biosciences from the perspective of Neurocrine Biosciences response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Neurocrine Biosciences using Neurocrine Biosciences' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Neurocrine using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Neurocrine Biosciences' stock price.
Neurocrine Biosciences Short Interest
An investor who is long Neurocrine Biosciences may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Neurocrine Biosciences and may potentially protect profits, hedge Neurocrine Biosciences with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 135.1489 | Short Percent 0.0468 | Short Ratio 3.09 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.1 M | 50 Day MA 142.6478 |
Neurocrine Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Neurocrine Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 135.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 126.47.Neurocrine Biosciences Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Neurocrine Biosciences' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Neurocrine. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Neurocrine can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Neurocrine Biosciences. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Neurocrine Biosciences' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Neurocrine Biosciences.
Neurocrine Biosciences Implied Volatility | 0.34 |
Neurocrine Biosciences' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Neurocrine Biosciences stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Neurocrine Biosciences' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Neurocrine Biosciences stock will not fluctuate a lot when Neurocrine Biosciences' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Neurocrine Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 135.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 126.47. Neurocrine Biosciences after-hype prediction price | USD 138.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Neurocrine | Build AI portfolio with Neurocrine Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Neurocrine contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Neurocrine Biosciences will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0213% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Neurocrine Biosciences trading at USD 138.85, that is roughly USD 0.0295 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Neurocrine Biosciences' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Neurocrine Biosciences options at the current volatility level of 0.34%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Neurocrine Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Neurocrine Biosciences' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Neurocrine Biosciences' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Neurocrine Biosciences stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Neurocrine Biosciences' open interest, investors have to compare it to Neurocrine Biosciences' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Neurocrine Biosciences is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Neurocrine. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Neurocrine Biosciences Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Neurocrine price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Neurocrine using various technical indicators. When you analyze Neurocrine charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Neurocrine Biosciences' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1996-06-30 | Previous Quarter 264 M | Current Value 340.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 104.2 M |
Neurocrine Biosciences Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Neurocrine Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 135.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.07, mean absolute percentage error of 7.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 126.47.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Neurocrine Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Neurocrine Biosciences' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Neurocrine Biosciences Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Neurocrine Biosciences | Neurocrine Biosciences Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Neurocrine Biosciences Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Neurocrine Biosciences' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Neurocrine Biosciences' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 133.36 and 136.86, respectively. We have considered Neurocrine Biosciences' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Neurocrine Biosciences stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Neurocrine Biosciences stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.0581 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.0733 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0145 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 126.4729 |
Predictive Modules for Neurocrine Biosciences
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Neurocrine Biosciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Neurocrine Biosciences After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Neurocrine Biosciences at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Neurocrine Biosciences or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Neurocrine Biosciences, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Neurocrine Biosciences Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Neurocrine Biosciences' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Neurocrine Biosciences' historical news coverage. Neurocrine Biosciences' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 136.98 and 140.48, respectively. We have considered Neurocrine Biosciences' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Neurocrine Biosciences is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Neurocrine Biosciences is based on 3 months time horizon.
Neurocrine Biosciences Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Neurocrine Biosciences is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Neurocrine Biosciences backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Neurocrine Biosciences, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.75 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
138.85 | 138.73 | 0.09 |
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Neurocrine Biosciences Hype Timeline
Neurocrine Biosciences is now traded for 138.85. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Neurocrine is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 138.73. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 88.38%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.06%. The volatility of related hype on Neurocrine Biosciences is about 1388.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 138.86. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Neurocrine Biosciences was now reported as 30.13. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.27. Neurocrine Biosciences last dividend was issued on the 29th of December 1995. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Neurocrine Biosciences to cross-verify your projections.Neurocrine Biosciences Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Neurocrine Biosciences' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Neurocrine Biosciences' future price movements. Getting to know how Neurocrine Biosciences' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Neurocrine Biosciences may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GOVX | GeoVax Labs | 0.65 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 9.38 | (13.70) | 42.89 | |
| BLRX | BioLineRx | 0.07 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.95 | (5.26) | 13.04 | |
| THAR | Tharimmune | (0.15) | 9 per month | 5.94 | 0.05 | 11.15 | (10.08) | 29.73 | |
| AIMD | Ainos Inc | 0.06 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 12.30 | (10.43) | 38.73 | |
| LPCN | Lipocine | 0.00 | 6 per month | 3.28 | 0.30 | 15.95 | (7.33) | 33.09 |
Other Forecasting Options for Neurocrine Biosciences
For every potential investor in Neurocrine, whether a beginner or expert, Neurocrine Biosciences' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Neurocrine Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Neurocrine. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Neurocrine Biosciences' price trends.Neurocrine Biosciences Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Neurocrine Biosciences stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Neurocrine Biosciences could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Neurocrine Biosciences by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Neurocrine Biosciences Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Neurocrine Biosciences stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Neurocrine Biosciences shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Neurocrine Biosciences stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Neurocrine Biosciences entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Neurocrine Biosciences Risk Indicators
The analysis of Neurocrine Biosciences' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Neurocrine Biosciences' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting neurocrine stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.72 | |||
| Variance | 2.94 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Neurocrine Biosciences
The number of cover stories for Neurocrine Biosciences depends on current market conditions and Neurocrine Biosciences' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Neurocrine Biosciences is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Neurocrine Biosciences' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Neurocrine Biosciences Short Properties
Neurocrine Biosciences' future price predictability will typically decrease when Neurocrine Biosciences' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Neurocrine Biosciences often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Neurocrine Biosciences' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Neurocrine Biosciences' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 103.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Additional Tools for Neurocrine Stock Analysis
When running Neurocrine Biosciences' price analysis, check to measure Neurocrine Biosciences' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Neurocrine Biosciences is operating at the current time. Most of Neurocrine Biosciences' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Neurocrine Biosciences' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Neurocrine Biosciences' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Neurocrine Biosciences to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.