Noble Plc Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NE Stock | USD 33.91 0.08 0.24% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Noble plc on the next trading day is expected to be 35.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.24. Noble Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Noble Plc stock prices and determine the direction of Noble plc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Noble Plc's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Noble Plc's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.80) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0939 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.7627 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.1199 | Wall Street Target Price 33.8 |
Using Noble Plc hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Noble plc from the perspective of Noble Plc response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Noble Plc using Noble Plc's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Noble using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Noble Plc's stock price.
Noble Plc Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Noble Plc's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Noble. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Noble Plc stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 27.6261 | Short Percent 0.1031 | Short Ratio 7.78 | Shares Short Prior Month 11.7 M | 50 Day MA 30.2412 |
Noble plc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Noble Plc's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Noble. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Noble can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Noble plc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Noble Plc Implied Volatility | 0.67 |
Noble Plc's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Noble plc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Noble Plc's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Noble Plc stock will not fluctuate a lot when Noble Plc's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Noble plc on the next trading day is expected to be 35.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.24. Noble Plc after-hype prediction price | USD 33.91 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Noble Plc to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Noble contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Noble plc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0419% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Noble Plc trading at USD 33.91, that is roughly USD 0.0142 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Noble Plc's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Noble plc options at the current volatility level of 0.67%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Noble Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Noble Plc's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Noble Plc's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Noble Plc stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Noble Plc's open interest, investors have to compare it to Noble Plc's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Noble Plc is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Noble. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Noble Plc Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Noble price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Noble using various technical indicators. When you analyze Noble charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Noble Plc Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Noble Plc's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2002-12-31 | Previous Quarter 338.2 M | Current Value 477.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 207.7 M |
Noble Plc Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Noble plc on the next trading day is expected to be 35.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66, mean absolute percentage error of 0.72, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.24.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Noble Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Noble Plc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Noble Plc Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Noble Plc | Noble Plc Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Noble Plc Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Noble Plc's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Noble Plc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 32.91 and 37.64, respectively. We have considered Noble Plc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Noble Plc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Noble Plc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7849 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6597 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0217 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 40.2392 |
Predictive Modules for Noble Plc
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Noble plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Noble Plc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Noble Plc After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Noble Plc at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Noble Plc or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Noble Plc, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Noble Plc Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Noble Plc's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Noble Plc's historical news coverage. Noble Plc's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.55 and 36.27, respectively. We have considered Noble Plc's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Noble Plc is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Noble plc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Noble Plc Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Noble Plc is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Noble Plc backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Noble Plc, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 2.36 | 0.30 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
33.91 | 33.91 | 0.00 |
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Noble Plc Hype Timeline
As of January 23, 2026 Noble plc is listed for 33.91. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.3, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Noble is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 174.81%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.22%. %. The volatility of related hype on Noble Plc is about 1735.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 33.94. About 21.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.19. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Noble plc has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.01. The entity last dividend was issued on the 4th of December 2025. The firm had 143:125 split on the 4th of August 2014. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Noble Plc to cross-verify your projections.Noble Plc Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Noble Plc's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Noble Plc's future price movements. Getting to know how Noble Plc's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Noble Plc may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TGS | Transportadora de Gas | 0.05 | 8 per month | 1.22 | 0.11 | 4.45 | (2.66) | 40.09 | |
| CNX | CNX Resources Corp | (0.08) | 9 per month | 1.59 | 0.08 | 3.38 | (2.77) | 8.32 | |
| AROC | Archrock | 0.17 | 9 per month | 2.00 | (0.04) | 2.47 | (3.45) | 10.69 | |
| CHRD | Chord Energy Corp | 0.17 | 13 per month | 2.03 | 0.03 | 3.54 | (3.61) | 9.26 | |
| MTDR | Matador Resources | 0.09 | 11 per month | 2.73 | (0.02) | 3.10 | (4.26) | 10.82 | |
| FRO | Frontline | 0.58 | 8 per month | 2.48 | 0.05 | 3.42 | (3.95) | 13.55 | |
| RIG | Transocean | 0.01 | 12 per month | 1.88 | 0.19 | 5.53 | (3.37) | 20.08 | |
| SOBO | South Bow | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.32 | 0.03 | 2.08 | (2.41) | 8.35 | |
| LB | LandBridge Company LLC | (0.33) | 9 per month | 4.17 | 0.04 | 8.15 | (5.75) | 31.05 | |
| UGP | Ultrapar Participacoes SA | 0.70 | 4 per month | 2.40 | 0.10 | 3.92 | (2.79) | 13.99 |
Other Forecasting Options for Noble Plc
For every potential investor in Noble, whether a beginner or expert, Noble Plc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Noble Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Noble. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Noble Plc's price trends.Noble Plc Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Noble Plc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Noble Plc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Noble Plc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Noble Plc Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Noble Plc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Noble Plc shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Noble Plc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Noble plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Noble Plc Risk Indicators
The analysis of Noble Plc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Noble Plc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting noble stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.42 | |||
| Variance | 5.85 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.61 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.13 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.10) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Noble Plc
The number of cover stories for Noble Plc depends on current market conditions and Noble Plc's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Noble Plc is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Noble Plc's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Noble Plc Short Properties
Noble Plc's future price predictability will typically decrease when Noble Plc's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Noble plc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Noble Plc's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Noble Plc's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 151.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 247.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Noble Plc to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Noble Stock refer to our How to Trade Noble Stock guide.You can also try the Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.
Is Energy Equipment & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Noble Plc. If investors know Noble will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Noble Plc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.80) | Dividend Share 2 | Earnings Share 1.39 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
The market value of Noble plc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Noble that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Noble Plc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Noble Plc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Noble Plc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Noble Plc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Noble Plc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Noble Plc is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Noble Plc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.