National Energy Stock Forward View
| NESR Stock | USD 19.68 0.01 0.05% |
National Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although National Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of National Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of National Energy fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of National Energy's share price is above 70 as of today. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling National, making its price go up or down. Momentum 71
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.18) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2679 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.7692 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.4945 | Wall Street Target Price 22.1429 |
Using National Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National Energy Services from the perspective of National Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
National Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of National Energy Services on the next trading day is expected to be 19.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.60.National Energy Services Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to National Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in National. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding National can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around National Energy Services. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of National Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about National Energy.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of National Energy Services on the next trading day is expected to be 19.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.60. National Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 19.67 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Energy to cross-verify your projections. National Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
National Energy Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the National Energy's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2016-12-31 | Previous Quarter 131.8 M | Current Value 69.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 46.8 M |
National Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of National Energy Services on the next trading day is expected to be 19.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
National Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest National Energy | National Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
National Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting National Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.76 and 21.82, respectively. We have considered National Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.9202 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2721 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0175 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.601 |
Predictive Modules for National Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Energy Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
National Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of National Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of National Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
National Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting National Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National Energy's historical news coverage. National Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.14 and 22.20, respectively. We have considered National Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
National Energy is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National Energy Services is based on 3 months time horizon.
National Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.77 | 2.53 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 12 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
19.68 | 19.67 | 0.00 |
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National Energy Hype Timeline
National Energy Services is now traded for 19.68. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.18, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. National is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.77%. %. The volatility of related hype on National Energy is about 2480.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.76. About 26.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of National Energy was now reported as 9.49. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Energy to cross-verify your projections.National Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to National Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how National Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RES | RPC Inc | (0.08) | 10 per month | 1.78 | 0.16 | 4.77 | (2.96) | 18.92 | |
| VTOL | Bristow Group | 1.63 | 9 per month | 2.11 | 0.07 | 3.40 | (3.37) | 11.04 | |
| INVX | Innovex International | 0.33 | 9 per month | 1.74 | 0.11 | 4.39 | (3.56) | 12.82 | |
| MRC | MRC Global | (0.51) | 21 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.27 | (4.18) | 11.50 | |
| FLOC | Flowco Holdings | 0.12 | 10 per month | 2.09 | 0.11 | 4.18 | (3.32) | 23.77 | |
| LPG | Dorian LPG | (0.48) | 8 per month | 2.07 | 0.02 | 3.58 | (2.53) | 10.53 | |
| NPKI | NPK International | (0.18) | 8 per month | 2.35 | 0.03 | 3.96 | (3.24) | 12.44 | |
| HLX | Helix Energy Solutions | (0.02) | 11 per month | 2.67 | 0.04 | 4.58 | (4.43) | 12.24 | |
| DNOW | Now Inc | 0.29 | 9 per month | 2.16 | (0.03) | 3.90 | (3.86) | 11.62 | |
| PUMP | ProPetro Holding Corp | (0.08) | 17 per month | 2.77 | 0.13 | 7.32 | (6.58) | 60.13 |
Other Forecasting Options for National Energy
For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Energy's price trends.National Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
National Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Energy Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
National Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of National Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.19 | |||
| Variance | 10.15 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.55 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.37 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.45) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for National Energy
The number of cover stories for National Energy depends on current market conditions and National Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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National Energy Short Properties
National Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when National Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of National Energy Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential National Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 95.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 108 M |
Additional Tools for National Stock Analysis
When running National Energy's price analysis, check to measure National Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Energy is operating at the current time. Most of National Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.