Nine Energy Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NINE Stock | USD 0.51 0.05 10.87% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nine Energy Service on the next trading day is expected to be 0.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.75. Nine Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Nine Energy stock prices and determine the direction of Nine Energy Service's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Nine Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Nine Energy's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Nine Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Nine Energy Service from the perspective of Nine Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nine Energy Service on the next trading day is expected to be 0.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.75. Nine Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 0.46 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nine Energy to cross-verify your projections. Nine Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Nine price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Nine using various technical indicators. When you analyze Nine charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Nine Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nine Energy Service on the next trading day is expected to be 0.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nine Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nine Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Nine Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Nine Energy | Nine Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Nine Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Nine Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nine Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 8.63, respectively. We have considered Nine Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nine Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nine Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.394 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0287 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0647 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.749 |
Predictive Modules for Nine Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nine Energy Service. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Nine Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Nine Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Nine Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Nine Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Nine Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Nine Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Nine Energy's historical news coverage. Nine Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.02 and 8.48, respectively. We have considered Nine Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Nine Energy is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Nine Energy Service is based on 3 months time horizon.
Nine Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Nine Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Nine Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Nine Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 8.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.51 | 0.46 | 0.00 |
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Nine Energy Hype Timeline
Nine Energy Service is now traded for 0.51. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Nine is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.26%. %. The volatility of related hype on Nine Energy is about 42894.74%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.51. About 14.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.01. Nine Energy Service had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nine Energy to cross-verify your projections.Nine Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Nine Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Nine Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Nine Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Nine Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KLXE | KLX Energy Services | (0.20) | 7 per month | 4.06 | 0.09 | 8.88 | (7.06) | 27.68 | |
| BATL | Battalion Oil Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.84 | 0.02 | 5.45 | (5.00) | 17.17 | |
| EONR | EON Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 9.09 | (7.27) | 22.44 | |
| CKX | CKX Lands | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.28 | (0.01) | 3.61 | (3.43) | 13.77 | |
| SPWR | Complete Solaria | 0.03 | 9 per month | 3.92 | 0.06 | 8.28 | (6.98) | 22.96 | |
| BANL | CBL International Limited | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 4.65 | (7.69) | 24.07 | |
| TMDE | TMD Energy Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.59 | 0.05 | 8.00 | (10.87) | 160.91 | |
| SKYQ | Sky Quarry | 0.00 | 0 per month | 8.69 | 0.04 | 9.68 | (14.29) | 125.89 | |
| MXC | Mexco Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.61 | 0.02 | 5.91 | (7.22) | 16.16 | |
| USEG | US Energy Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 6.03 | (5.05) | 13.11 |
Other Forecasting Options for Nine Energy
For every potential investor in Nine, whether a beginner or expert, Nine Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nine Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nine. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nine Energy's price trends.Nine Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nine Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nine Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nine Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Nine Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nine Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nine Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nine Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Nine Energy Service entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Nine Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Nine Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nine Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nine stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.15 | |||
| Variance | 66.41 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Nine Energy
The number of cover stories for Nine Energy depends on current market conditions and Nine Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Nine Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Nine Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Nine Energy Short Properties
Nine Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Nine Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Nine Energy Service often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Nine Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nine Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 27.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nine Energy to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Oil & Gas Equipment & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Nine Energy. If investors know Nine will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Nine Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Nine Energy Service is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Nine that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Nine Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Nine Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Nine Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Nine Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Nine Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Nine Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nine Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.