National Grid Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| NNGD Stock | EUR 62.00 3.00 5.08% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of National Grid plc on the next trading day is expected to be 57.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.96. National Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of National Grid's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
National |
National Grid Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of National Grid plc on the next trading day is expected to be 57.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.06, mean absolute percentage error of 1.86, and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.96.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Grid's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
National Grid Stock Forecast Pattern
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National Grid Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting National Grid's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Grid's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 56.12 and 59.57, respectively. We have considered National Grid's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Grid stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Grid stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.7327 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0648 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.018 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 64.9554 |
Predictive Modules for National Grid
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Grid plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Grid's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for National Grid
For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Grid's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Grid's price trends.National Grid Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Grid stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Grid could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Grid by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
National Grid plc Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of National Grid's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of National Grid's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
National Grid Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Grid stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Grid shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Grid stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Grid plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
National Grid Risk Indicators
The analysis of National Grid's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Grid's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Variance | 3.01 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.51 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.83 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.94) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in National Stock
When determining whether National Grid plc is a strong investment it is important to analyze National Grid's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact National Grid's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding National Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Grid to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.