NOS SGPS Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| NOS Stock | EUR 4.32 0.15 3.60% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of NOS SGPS SA on the next trading day is expected to be 4.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.78. NOS Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of NOS SGPS's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using NOS SGPS hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NOS SGPS SA from the perspective of NOS SGPS response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of NOS SGPS SA on the next trading day is expected to be 4.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.78. NOS SGPS after-hype prediction price | EUR 4.32 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
NOS |
NOS SGPS Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NOS price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NOS using various technical indicators. When you analyze NOS charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NOS SGPS Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of NOS SGPS SA on the next trading day is expected to be 4.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NOS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NOS SGPS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NOS SGPS Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest NOS SGPS | NOS SGPS Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
NOS SGPS Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NOS SGPS's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NOS SGPS's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.28 and 5.30, respectively. We have considered NOS SGPS's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NOS SGPS stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NOS SGPS stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.2782 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0287 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0074 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.7789 |
Predictive Modules for NOS SGPS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NOS SGPS SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.NOS SGPS After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NOS SGPS at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NOS SGPS or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NOS SGPS, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NOS SGPS Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NOS SGPS's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NOS SGPS's historical news coverage. NOS SGPS's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.31 and 5.33, respectively. We have considered NOS SGPS's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NOS SGPS is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NOS SGPS SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
NOS SGPS Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NOS SGPS is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NOS SGPS backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NOS SGPS, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
4.32 | 4.32 | 0.00 |
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NOS SGPS Hype Timeline
NOS SGPS SA is now traded for 4.32on Euronext Lisbon of Portugal. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. NOS is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on NOS SGPS is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.32. About 63.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.89. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. NOS SGPS SA has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.91. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of May 2022. The firm had 2:1 split on the 14th of June 2005. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NOS SGPS to cross-verify your projections.NOS SGPS Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NOS SGPS's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NOS SGPS's future price movements. Getting to know how NOS SGPS's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NOS SGPS may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PHR | Pharol SGPS SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.71 | (3.32) | 14.39 | |
| SCP | Sporting Clube de | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.10 | (0.07) | 2.02 | (2.00) | 5.97 | |
| FCP | Futebol Clube do | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.67 | 0.12 | 12.50 | (9.09) | 33.78 | |
| SLBEN | Benfica | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.24 | (0.03) | 1.68 | (1.88) | 7.39 | |
| MCP | Media Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.31) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.52 | |
| IPR | Impresa Sociedade | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 5.26 | (5.00) | 18.53 | |
| SCB | Sporting Clube de | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for NOS SGPS
For every potential investor in NOS, whether a beginner or expert, NOS SGPS's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NOS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NOS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NOS SGPS's price trends.NOS SGPS Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NOS SGPS stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NOS SGPS could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NOS SGPS by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NOS SGPS Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NOS SGPS stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NOS SGPS shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NOS SGPS stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NOS SGPS SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 47380.32 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.153846 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.04 | |||
| Day Median Price | 4.27 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 4.28 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.13 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.15 |
NOS SGPS Risk Indicators
The analysis of NOS SGPS's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NOS SGPS's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nos stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7383 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.523 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9777 | |||
| Variance | 0.9559 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.778 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2735 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.01) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for NOS SGPS
The number of cover stories for NOS SGPS depends on current market conditions and NOS SGPS's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NOS SGPS is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NOS SGPS's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for NOS Stock Analysis
When running NOS SGPS's price analysis, check to measure NOS SGPS's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NOS SGPS is operating at the current time. Most of NOS SGPS's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NOS SGPS's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NOS SGPS's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NOS SGPS to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.