National Presto Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NPK Stock | USD 121.69 1.28 1.06% |
National Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although National Presto's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of National Presto's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of National Presto fundamentals over time.
The relative strength indicator of National Presto's stock price is about 65. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling National, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.34) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.74 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.87 | Wall Street Target Price 18.93 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.257 |
Using National Presto hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National Presto Industries from the perspective of National Presto response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of National Presto Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 126.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 129.08. National Presto after-hype prediction price | USD 120.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Presto to cross-verify your projections. National Presto Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
National Presto Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the National Presto's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 1.8 M | Current Value 2.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 38.3 M |
National Presto Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of National Presto Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 126.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.12, mean absolute percentage error of 6.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 129.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Presto's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
National Presto Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest National Presto | National Presto Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
National Presto Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting National Presto's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Presto's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 124.08 and 127.94, respectively. We have considered National Presto's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Presto stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Presto stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.9672 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.116 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.02 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 129.0773 |
Predictive Modules for National Presto
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Presto Indu. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.National Presto After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of National Presto at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National Presto or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of National Presto, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
National Presto Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting National Presto's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National Presto's historical news coverage. National Presto's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 118.51 and 122.37, respectively. We have considered National Presto's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
National Presto is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National Presto Indu is based on 3 months time horizon.
National Presto Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National Presto is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Presto backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National Presto, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 1.93 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
121.69 | 120.44 | 0.02 |
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National Presto Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January National Presto Indu is traded for 121.69. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. National is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 120.44 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on National Presto is about 3112.9%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 121.68. The company reported the last year's revenue of 388.23 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 41.46 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 85.46 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Presto to cross-verify your projections.National Presto Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to National Presto's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National Presto's future price movements. Getting to know how National Presto's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National Presto may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SKYH | Sky Harbour Group | (0.19) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.60 | (3.32) | 12.01 | |
| APOG | Apogee Enterprises | 1.44 | 11 per month | 3.04 | (0) | 4.04 | (3.14) | 17.93 | |
| GLDD | Great Lakes Dredge | (0.10) | 8 per month | 1.39 | 0.16 | 4.74 | (3.02) | 15.87 | |
| CRESY | Cresud SACIF y | (0.18) | 6 per month | 1.67 | 0.13 | 4.93 | (3.64) | 30.85 | |
| RGR | Sturm Ruger | (0.96) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.05 | (3.50) | 24.96 | |
| EH | Ehang Holdings | (0.02) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.79 | (5.09) | 17.58 | |
| VLRS | Volaris | (0.08) | 5 per month | 2.17 | 0.14 | 6.58 | (4.72) | 19.39 | |
| SERV | Serve Robotics Common | 1.38 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 10.62 | (9.56) | 28.21 | |
| WLFC | Willis Lease Finance | (1.89) | 11 per month | 2.20 | 0.18 | 5.67 | (3.93) | 11.05 | |
| NAT | Nordic American Tankers | (0.02) | 8 per month | 1.37 | 0.11 | 3.18 | (2.31) | 10.94 |
Other Forecasting Options for National Presto
For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Presto's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Presto's price trends.National Presto Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Presto stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Presto could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Presto by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
National Presto Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Presto stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Presto shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Presto stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Presto Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
National Presto Risk Indicators
The analysis of National Presto's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Presto's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Variance | 3.93 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.17 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.47) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for National Presto
The number of cover stories for National Presto depends on current market conditions and National Presto's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National Presto is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National Presto's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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National Presto Short Properties
National Presto's future price predictability will typically decrease when National Presto's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of National Presto Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential National Presto's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Presto's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 22.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Presto to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is Aerospace & Defense space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Presto. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Presto listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.34) | Dividend Share 1 | Earnings Share 5.44 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.257 |
The market value of National Presto Indu is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Presto's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Presto's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Presto's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Presto's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Presto's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National Presto is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Presto's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.