NetEase Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NTES Stock | USD 131.71 1.13 0.85% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NetEase on the next trading day is expected to be 132.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 116.17. NetEase Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of NetEase's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.315 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 14.8957 | EPS Estimate Current Year 61.2186 | EPS Estimate Next Year 65.2603 | Wall Street Target Price 168.5116 |
Using NetEase hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NetEase from the perspective of NetEase response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards NetEase using NetEase's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards NetEase using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of NetEase's stock price.
NetEase Short Interest
An investor who is long NetEase may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about NetEase and may potentially protect profits, hedge NetEase with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 132.5483 | Short Percent 0.007 | Short Ratio 4.83 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.1 M | 50 Day MA 139.2066 |
NetEase Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to NetEase's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in NetEase. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding NetEase can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around NetEase. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
NetEase Implied Volatility | 0.57 |
NetEase's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of NetEase stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if NetEase's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that NetEase stock will not fluctuate a lot when NetEase's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NetEase on the next trading day is expected to be 132.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 116.17. NetEase after-hype prediction price | USD 131.7 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NetEase to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current NetEase contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that NetEase will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0356% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With NetEase trading at USD 131.71, that is roughly USD 0.0469 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating NetEase's daily price movement you should consider acquiring NetEase options at the current volatility level of 0.57%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 NetEase Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast NetEase's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in NetEase's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for NetEase stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current NetEase's open interest, investors have to compare it to NetEase's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of NetEase is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in NetEase. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
NetEase Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NetEase price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NetEase using various technical indicators. When you analyze NetEase charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NetEase Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NetEase on the next trading day is expected to be 132.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.94, mean absolute percentage error of 7.63, and the sum of the absolute errors of 116.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NetEase Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NetEase's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NetEase Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest NetEase | NetEase Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
NetEase Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NetEase's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NetEase's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 129.99 and 134.08, respectively. We have considered NetEase's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NetEase stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NetEase stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3045 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.3062 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9362 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0139 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 116.1744 |
Predictive Modules for NetEase
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NetEase. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NetEase's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NetEase After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NetEase at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NetEase or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NetEase, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NetEase Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NetEase's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NetEase's historical news coverage. NetEase's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 129.64 and 133.76, respectively. We have considered NetEase's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NetEase is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NetEase is based on 3 months time horizon.
NetEase Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NetEase is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NetEase backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NetEase, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 2.04 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
131.71 | 131.70 | 0.01 |
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NetEase Hype Timeline
NetEase is now traded for 131.71. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. NetEase is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 131.7. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.14%. The volatility of related hype on NetEase is about 342.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 131.63. The book value of the company was now reported as 7.03. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.03. NetEase recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.1. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of December 2025. The firm had 5:1 split on the 2nd of October 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NetEase to cross-verify your projections.NetEase Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NetEase's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NetEase's future price movements. Getting to know how NetEase's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NetEase may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RBLX | Roblox Corp | (3.88) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 3.38 | (6.18) | 20.20 | |
| CDNS | Cadence Design Systems | (0.37) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.67 | (3.06) | 9.36 | |
| SNOW | Snowflake | 2.27 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.44 | (4.34) | 16.09 | |
| MSTR | MicroStrategy Incorporated | 0.45 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 5.78 | (7.55) | 15.68 | |
| NET | Cloudflare | (5.87) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.32 | (4.20) | 21.66 | |
| SNPS | Synopsys | (9.38) | 8 per month | 2.11 | 0.05 | 3.78 | (3.17) | 9.95 | |
| DELL | Dell Technologies | (2.14) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.84 | (4.81) | 13.28 | |
| INFY | Infosys Ltd ADR | 6.16 | 10 per month | 1.56 | 0.05 | 3.57 | (2.59) | 13.18 | |
| TEL | TE Connectivity | 4.93 | 8 per month | 2.19 | (0.01) | 2.20 | (3.21) | 9.90 | |
| GLW | Corning Incorporated | 1.88 | 7 per month | 2.68 | 0.04 | 3.60 | (3.29) | 12.43 |
Other Forecasting Options for NetEase
For every potential investor in NetEase, whether a beginner or expert, NetEase's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NetEase Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NetEase. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NetEase's price trends.NetEase Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NetEase stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NetEase could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NetEase by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NetEase Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NetEase stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NetEase shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NetEase stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NetEase entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 131.71 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 131.71 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.56) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.13) |
NetEase Risk Indicators
The analysis of NetEase's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NetEase's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting netease stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Variance | 4.35 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for NetEase
The number of cover stories for NetEase depends on current market conditions and NetEase's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NetEase is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NetEase's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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NetEase Short Properties
NetEase's future price predictability will typically decrease when NetEase's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NetEase often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NetEase's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NetEase's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 646.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 137.6 B |
Additional Tools for NetEase Stock Analysis
When running NetEase's price analysis, check to measure NetEase's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NetEase is operating at the current time. Most of NetEase's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NetEase's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NetEase's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NetEase to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.