Novocure Stock Forward View
| NVCR Stock | USD 13.67 0.08 0.58% |
Novocure Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Novocure's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Novocure's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Novocure fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Novocure's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 18
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.06) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.50) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.39) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.05) | Wall Street Target Price 25.9286 |
Using Novocure hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Novocure from the perspective of Novocure response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Novocure using Novocure's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Novocure using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Novocure's stock price.
Novocure Short Interest
An investor who is long Novocure may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Novocure and may potentially protect profits, hedge Novocure with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 13.8066 | Short Percent 0.1254 | Short Ratio 3.98 | Shares Short Prior Month 8 M | 50 Day MA 12.7013 |
Novocure Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Novocure on the next trading day is expected to be 15.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.81.Novocure Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Novocure's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Novocure. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Novocure can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Novocure. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Novocure's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Novocure.
Novocure Implied Volatility | 1.41 |
Novocure's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Novocure stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Novocure's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Novocure stock will not fluctuate a lot when Novocure's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Novocure on the next trading day is expected to be 15.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.81. Novocure after-hype prediction price | USD 13.68 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Novocure to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Novocure contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Novocure will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0881% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Novocure trading at USD 13.67, that is roughly USD 0.012 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Novocure's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Novocure options at the current volatility level of 1.41%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Novocure Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Novocure's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Novocure's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Novocure stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Novocure's open interest, investors have to compare it to Novocure's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Novocure is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Novocure. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Novocure Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Novocure price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Novocure using various technical indicators. When you analyze Novocure charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Novocure Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Novocure's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2013-12-31 | Previous Quarter 149.6 M | Current Value 344.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 126 M |
Novocure Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Novocure on the next trading day is expected to be 15.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Novocure Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Novocure's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Novocure Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Novocure | Novocure Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Novocure Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Novocure's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Novocure's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.14 and 21.84, respectively. We have considered Novocure's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Novocure stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Novocure stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.0408 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4486 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0358 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.8113 |
Predictive Modules for Novocure
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Novocure. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novocure's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Novocure After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Novocure at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Novocure or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Novocure, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Novocure Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Novocure's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Novocure's historical news coverage. Novocure's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.83 and 19.53, respectively. We have considered Novocure's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Novocure is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Novocure is based on 3 months time horizon.
Novocure Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Novocure is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Novocure backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Novocure, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.42 | 5.85 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
13.67 | 13.68 | 0.07 |
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Novocure Hype Timeline
Novocure is now traded for 13.67. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Novocure is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 13.68 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.42%. The volatility of related hype on Novocure is about 3545.45%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.60. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 655.35 M. Net Loss for the year was (168.63 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 488.47 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Novocure to cross-verify your projections.Novocure Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Novocure's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Novocure's future price movements. Getting to know how Novocure's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Novocure may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AZTA | Azenta Inc | (3.56) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.81 | (4.80) | 29.88 | |
| KMTS | Kestra Medical Technologies | (0.04) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.70 | (6.80) | 20.54 | |
| STAA | STAAR Surgical | (0.59) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.26 | (5.51) | 15.08 | |
| BLFS | BioLife Solutions | (0.24) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.19 | (3.57) | 14.11 | |
| NEOG | Neogen | 0.15 | 11 per month | 0.63 | 0.23 | 5.56 | (2.35) | 34.17 | |
| EVO | Evotec SE ADR | 0.03 | 7 per month | 2.78 | 0.05 | 5.02 | (4.53) | 16.20 | |
| TDOC | Teladoc | (0.13) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.72 | (4.84) | 15.93 | |
| ESTA | Establishment Labs Holdings | 0.74 | 4 per month | 2.64 | 0.06 | 4.55 | (5.54) | 13.22 | |
| PLSE | Pulse Biosciences | 1.35 | 9 per month | 3.82 | 0.09 | 7.62 | (5.94) | 66.16 | |
| UPB | Upstream Bio | 0.64 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 7.84 | (12.87) | 57.85 |
Other Forecasting Options for Novocure
For every potential investor in Novocure, whether a beginner or expert, Novocure's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Novocure Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Novocure. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Novocure's price trends.Novocure Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Novocure stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Novocure could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Novocure by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Novocure Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Novocure stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Novocure shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Novocure stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Novocure entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 201144.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.07) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.82 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.77 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.19) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.08) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 18.09 |
Novocure Risk Indicators
The analysis of Novocure's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Novocure's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting novocure stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.56 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.76 | |||
| Variance | 33.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 20.99 | |||
| Semi Variance | 17.79 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.01) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Novocure
The number of cover stories for Novocure depends on current market conditions and Novocure's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Novocure is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Novocure's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Novocure Stock Analysis
When running Novocure's price analysis, check to measure Novocure's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novocure is operating at the current time. Most of Novocure's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novocure's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novocure's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novocure to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.