Navigator Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for Navigator Holdings is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Navigator Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Navigator Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Navigator Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 15.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.58.

Navigator Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Navigator Holdings

Navigator Holdings Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Navigator Holdings Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Navigator Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Navigator Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Navigator Holdings. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Navigator Holdings. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Navigator Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Navigator Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 14.30 15.93 17.56 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 15.67 17.30 18.93 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 15.22 15.80 16.38 Details

6 Analysts Consensus Low Target High 16.99 18.67 20.72 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Navigator Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Navigator Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Navigator Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Navigator Holdings.

Other Forecasting Options for Navigator Holdings

For every potential investor in Navigator, whether a beginner or expert, Navigator Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Navigator Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Navigator. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Navigator Holdings' price trends.

Navigator Holdings Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Navigator Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Navigator Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Navigator Holdings' current price.

Navigator Holdings Market Strength Events

Navigator Holdings Risk Indicators

Additional Tools for Navigator Stock Analysis