Nexpoint Residential Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NXRT Stock | USD 30.53 0.08 0.26% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nexpoint Residential Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 30.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.29. Nexpoint Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Nexpoint Residential's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.718 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.36) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.25) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.46) | Wall Street Target Price 33 |
Using Nexpoint Residential hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Nexpoint Residential Trust from the perspective of Nexpoint Residential response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Nexpoint Residential using Nexpoint Residential's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Nexpoint using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Nexpoint Residential's stock price.
Nexpoint Residential Short Interest
An investor who is long Nexpoint Residential may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Nexpoint Residential and may potentially protect profits, hedge Nexpoint Residential with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 32.6865 | Short Percent 0.0428 | Short Ratio 2.64 | Shares Short Prior Month 568 K | 50 Day MA 30.3508 |
Nexpoint Residential Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Nexpoint Residential's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Nexpoint. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Nexpoint can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Nexpoint Residential Trust. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Nexpoint Residential Implied Volatility | 1.12 |
Nexpoint Residential's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Nexpoint Residential Trust stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Nexpoint Residential's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Nexpoint Residential stock will not fluctuate a lot when Nexpoint Residential's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nexpoint Residential Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 30.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.29. Nexpoint Residential after-hype prediction price | USD 30.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nexpoint Residential to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Nexpoint contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Nexpoint Residential Trust will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.07% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Nexpoint Residential trading at USD 30.53, that is roughly USD 0.0214 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Nexpoint Residential's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Nexpoint Residential Trust options at the current volatility level of 1.12%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Nexpoint Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Nexpoint Residential's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Nexpoint Residential's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Nexpoint Residential stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Nexpoint Residential's open interest, investors have to compare it to Nexpoint Residential's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Nexpoint Residential is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Nexpoint. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Nexpoint Residential Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Nexpoint price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Nexpoint using various technical indicators. When you analyze Nexpoint charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Nexpoint Residential Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nexpoint Residential Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 30.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.29.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nexpoint Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nexpoint Residential's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Nexpoint Residential Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Nexpoint Residential | Nexpoint Residential Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Nexpoint Residential Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Nexpoint Residential's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nexpoint Residential's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.86 and 32.19, respectively. We have considered Nexpoint Residential's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nexpoint Residential stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nexpoint Residential stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.8364 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0028 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3715 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0124 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.2896 |
Predictive Modules for Nexpoint Residential
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nexpoint Residential. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Nexpoint Residential After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Nexpoint Residential at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Nexpoint Residential or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Nexpoint Residential, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Nexpoint Residential Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Nexpoint Residential's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Nexpoint Residential's historical news coverage. Nexpoint Residential's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 28.87 and 32.19, respectively. We have considered Nexpoint Residential's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Nexpoint Residential is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Nexpoint Residential is based on 3 months time horizon.
Nexpoint Residential Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Nexpoint Residential is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Nexpoint Residential backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Nexpoint Residential, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 1.66 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 5 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
30.53 | 30.53 | 0.00 |
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Nexpoint Residential Hype Timeline
Nexpoint Residential is now traded for 30.53. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Nexpoint is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on Nexpoint Residential is about 29880.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.53. About 13.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Nexpoint Residential was now reported as 12.73. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 127.96. Nexpoint Residential recorded a loss per share of 1.92. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nexpoint Residential to cross-verify your projections.Nexpoint Residential Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Nexpoint Residential's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Nexpoint Residential's future price movements. Getting to know how Nexpoint Residential's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Nexpoint Residential may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BFS | Saul Centers | (0.28) | 9 per month | 1.08 | 0.02 | 1.71 | (1.72) | 4.95 | |
| RWT | Redwood Trust | (0.06) | 10 per month | 1.45 | 0.02 | 3.26 | (2.72) | 8.72 | |
| MITT | AG Mortgage Investment | 0.07 | 10 per month | 0.87 | 0.18 | 2.80 | (1.66) | 10.23 | |
| MITP | AG Mortgage Investment | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 0.32 | (0.20) | 1.00 | |
| AIV | Apartment Investment and | 0.07 | 13 per month | 0.86 | 0.02 | 2.17 | (1.58) | 8.03 | |
| BRSP | Brightspire Capital | 0.07 | 28 per month | 0.67 | 0.13 | 2.26 | (1.54) | 4.36 | |
| CSR | Centerspace | 0.03 | 12 per month | 1.14 | 0.02 | 2.31 | (2.12) | 15.00 | |
| CTO | CTO Realty Growth | 0.01 | 15 per month | 0.78 | 0.15 | 1.74 | (1.57) | 4.98 | |
| FBRT | Franklin BSP Realty | 0.05 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.09 | (1.56) | 5.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Nexpoint Residential
For every potential investor in Nexpoint, whether a beginner or expert, Nexpoint Residential's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nexpoint Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nexpoint. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nexpoint Residential's price trends.Nexpoint Residential Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nexpoint Residential stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nexpoint Residential could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nexpoint Residential by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Nexpoint Residential Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nexpoint Residential stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nexpoint Residential shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nexpoint Residential stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Nexpoint Residential Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Nexpoint Residential Risk Indicators
The analysis of Nexpoint Residential's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nexpoint Residential's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nexpoint stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Variance | 2.88 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.59 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.44) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Nexpoint Residential
The number of cover stories for Nexpoint Residential depends on current market conditions and Nexpoint Residential's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Nexpoint Residential is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Nexpoint Residential's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Nexpoint Residential Short Properties
Nexpoint Residential's future price predictability will typically decrease when Nexpoint Residential's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Nexpoint Residential Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Nexpoint Residential's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nexpoint Residential's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 26.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 23.1 M |
Additional Tools for Nexpoint Stock Analysis
When running Nexpoint Residential's price analysis, check to measure Nexpoint Residential's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nexpoint Residential is operating at the current time. Most of Nexpoint Residential's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nexpoint Residential's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nexpoint Residential's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nexpoint Residential to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.