Realty Income Stock Forward View

O Stock  MXN 1,065  16.26  1.50%   
Realty Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of Realty Income's share price is at 55. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Realty Income, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 55

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Realty Income's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Realty Income, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Realty Income hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Realty Income from the perspective of Realty Income response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Realty Income on the next trading day is expected to be 1,028 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 611.58.

Realty Income after-hype prediction price

    
  MXN 1065.03  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Realty Income to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Realty Stock please use our How to Invest in Realty Income guide.

Realty Income Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Realty price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Realty using various technical indicators. When you analyze Realty charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Realty Income is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Realty Income value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Realty Income Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Realty Income on the next trading day is expected to be 1,028 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.03, mean absolute percentage error of 164.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 611.58.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Realty Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Realty Income's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Realty Income Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Realty Income  Realty Income Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Realty Income Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Realty Income's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Realty Income's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,027 and 1,030, respectively. We have considered Realty Income's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,065
1,028
Expected Value
1,030
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Realty Income stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Realty Income stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria123.2152
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation10.0259
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0096
SAESum of the absolute errors611.58
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Realty Income. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Realty Income. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Realty Income

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Realty Income. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,0641,0651,066
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,0301,0311,172
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
1,0011,0471,093
Details

Realty Income After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Realty Income at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Realty Income or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Realty Income, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Realty Income Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Realty Income's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Realty Income's historical news coverage. Realty Income's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1,064 and 1,066, respectively. We have considered Realty Income's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
1,065
1,065
After-hype Price
1,066
Upside
Realty Income is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Realty Income is based on 3 months time horizon.

Realty Income Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Realty Income is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Realty Income backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Realty Income, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
1.22
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
1,065
1,065
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Realty Income Hype Timeline

Realty Income is now traded for 1,065on Mexican Exchange of Mexico. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Realty is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Realty Income is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1,065. About 73.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 19.68. Realty Income last dividend was issued on the 30th of September 2021. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Realty Income to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Realty Stock please use our How to Invest in Realty Income guide.

Realty Income Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Realty Income's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Realty Income's future price movements. Getting to know how Realty Income's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Realty Income may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Realty Income

For every potential investor in Realty, whether a beginner or expert, Realty Income's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Realty Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Realty. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Realty Income's price trends.

Realty Income Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Realty Income stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Realty Income could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Realty Income by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Realty Income Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Realty Income stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Realty Income shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Realty Income stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Realty Income entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Realty Income Risk Indicators

The analysis of Realty Income's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Realty Income's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting realty stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Realty Income

The number of cover stories for Realty Income depends on current market conditions and Realty Income's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Realty Income is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Realty Income's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Realty Income Short Properties

Realty Income's future price predictability will typically decrease when Realty Income's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Realty Income often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Realty Income's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Realty Income's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.81
Float Shares388.58M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day3
Average Daily Volume In Three Month36
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.19%

Additional Tools for Realty Stock Analysis

When running Realty Income's price analysis, check to measure Realty Income's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Realty Income is operating at the current time. Most of Realty Income's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Realty Income's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Realty Income's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Realty Income to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.