Ocugen Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| OCGN Stock | USD 1.43 0.00 0.00% |
Ocugen Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Ocugen's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ocugen's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ocugen fundamentals over time.
As of today, the RSI of Ocugen's share price is approaching 47. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ocugen, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.06) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.23) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.24) | Wall Street Target Price 9 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.542 |
Using Ocugen hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ocugen Inc from the perspective of Ocugen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ocugen using Ocugen's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ocugen using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ocugen's stock price.
Ocugen Short Interest
An investor who is long Ocugen may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ocugen and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ocugen with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 1.1942 | Short Percent 0.1557 | Short Ratio 8.62 | Shares Short Prior Month 46.4 M | 50 Day MA 1.4136 |
Ocugen Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ocugen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 1.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.26.Ocugen Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ocugen's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ocugen. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ocugen can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ocugen Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ocugen's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ocugen.
Ocugen Implied Volatility | 0.9 |
Ocugen's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ocugen Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ocugen's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ocugen stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ocugen's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ocugen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 1.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.26. Ocugen after-hype prediction price | USD 1.46 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ocugen to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ocugen contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ocugen Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0563% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Ocugen trading at USD 1.43, that is roughly USD 8.04E-4 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ocugen's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ocugen Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.9%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Ocugen Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ocugen's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ocugen's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ocugen stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ocugen's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ocugen's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ocugen is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ocugen. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Ocugen Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ocugen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ocugen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ocugen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ocugen Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ocugen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 1.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ocugen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ocugen's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ocugen Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ocugen | Ocugen Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Ocugen Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ocugen's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ocugen's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 6.48, respectively. We have considered Ocugen's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ocugen stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ocugen stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.1528 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -3.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0544 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0374 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.265 |
Predictive Modules for Ocugen
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ocugen Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ocugen After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ocugen at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ocugen or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ocugen, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ocugen Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ocugen's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ocugen's historical news coverage. Ocugen's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.07 and 6.51, respectively. We have considered Ocugen's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ocugen is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ocugen Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ocugen Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ocugen is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ocugen backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ocugen, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 5.05 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.43 | 1.46 | 2.10 |
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Ocugen Hype Timeline
Ocugen Inc is now traded for 1.43. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Ocugen is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.46 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 2.1%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Ocugen is about 1836.36%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.39. Ocugen Inc currently holds 32.5 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.07, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ocugen to cross-verify your projections.Ocugen Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ocugen's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ocugen's future price movements. Getting to know how Ocugen's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ocugen may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FULC | Fulcrum Therapeutics | (0.59) | 9 per month | 4.57 | 0.05 | 11.56 | (7.84) | 53.80 | |
| LCTX | Lineage Cell Therapeutics | 0.05 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.65 | (5.73) | 15.77 | |
| NGNE | Neurogene | (0.26) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 6.59 | (9.34) | 23.85 | |
| NMRA | Neumora Therapeutics | 0.04 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 9.77 | (7.30) | 33.25 | |
| OMER | Omeros | 0.60 | 7 per month | 4.49 | 0.09 | 12.62 | (7.99) | 87.69 | |
| CMPX | Compass Therapeutics | (0.37) | 9 per month | 3.01 | 0.18 | 7.61 | (5.34) | 16.90 | |
| ADCT | ADC Therapeutics SA | 0.03 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 8.49 | (7.06) | 22.84 | |
| LXRX | Lexicon Pharmaceuticals | 0.03 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 9.86 | (8.97) | 31.36 | |
| ALMS | Alumis Inc | (0.07) | 9 per month | 2.81 | 0.23 | 10.41 | (7.19) | 102.00 | |
| RAPT | RAPT Therapeutics | (2.21) | 6 per month | 3.04 | 0.14 | 7.87 | (6.78) | 64.05 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ocugen
For every potential investor in Ocugen, whether a beginner or expert, Ocugen's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ocugen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ocugen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ocugen's price trends.Ocugen Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ocugen stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ocugen could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ocugen by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ocugen Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ocugen stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ocugen shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ocugen stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ocugen Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0714 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.49 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.47 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.11 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.06) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.01 |
Ocugen Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ocugen's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ocugen's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ocugen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.69 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.0 | |||
| Variance | 24.98 | |||
| Downside Variance | 20.5 | |||
| Semi Variance | 19.38 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.36) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ocugen
The number of cover stories for Ocugen depends on current market conditions and Ocugen's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ocugen is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ocugen's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ocugen Short Properties
Ocugen's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ocugen's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ocugen Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ocugen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ocugen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 271 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 58.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ocugen to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Will Biotechnology sector continue expanding? Could Ocugen diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ocugen. Anticipated expansion of Ocugen directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Ocugen data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (0.22) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.542 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Investors evaluate Ocugen Inc using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Ocugen's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Ocugen's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Ocugen's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Ocugen should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Ocugen's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.