Ocular Therapeutix Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| OCUL Stock | USD 11.12 0.23 2.11% |
Ocular Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Ocular Therapeutix's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ocular Therapeutix's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ocular Therapeutix fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of Ocular Therapeutix's share price is approaching 45. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ocular Therapeutix, making its price go up or down. Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.36) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.43) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.48) | Wall Street Target Price 24.25 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.35) |
Using Ocular Therapeutix hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ocular Therapeutix from the perspective of Ocular Therapeutix response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ocular Therapeutix using Ocular Therapeutix's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ocular using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ocular Therapeutix's stock price.
Ocular Therapeutix Short Interest
An investor who is long Ocular Therapeutix may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ocular Therapeutix and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ocular Therapeutix with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 10.8106 | Short Percent 0.0581 | Short Ratio 3.29 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.6 M | 50 Day MA 12.255 |
Ocular Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Ocular Therapeutix on the next trading day is expected to be 11.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.98.Ocular Therapeutix Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ocular Therapeutix's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ocular. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ocular can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ocular Therapeutix. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ocular Therapeutix's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ocular Therapeutix.
Ocular Therapeutix Implied Volatility | 2.46 |
Ocular Therapeutix's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ocular Therapeutix stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ocular Therapeutix's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ocular Therapeutix stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ocular Therapeutix's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Ocular Therapeutix on the next trading day is expected to be 11.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.98. Ocular Therapeutix after-hype prediction price | USD 11.12 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ocular Therapeutix to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ocular contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ocular Therapeutix will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.15% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Ocular Therapeutix trading at USD 11.12, that is roughly USD 0.0171 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ocular Therapeutix's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ocular Therapeutix options at the current volatility level of 2.46%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Ocular Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ocular Therapeutix's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ocular Therapeutix's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ocular Therapeutix stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ocular Therapeutix's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ocular Therapeutix's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ocular Therapeutix is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ocular. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Ocular Therapeutix Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ocular price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ocular using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ocular charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ocular Therapeutix Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Ocular Therapeutix on the next trading day is expected to be 11.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ocular Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ocular Therapeutix's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ocular Therapeutix Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ocular Therapeutix | Ocular Therapeutix Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ocular Therapeutix Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ocular Therapeutix's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ocular Therapeutix's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.24 and 15.77, respectively. We have considered Ocular Therapeutix's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ocular Therapeutix stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ocular Therapeutix stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.6531 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0169 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4235 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0336 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.985 |
Predictive Modules for Ocular Therapeutix
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ocular Therapeutix. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ocular Therapeutix's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ocular Therapeutix After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ocular Therapeutix at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ocular Therapeutix or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ocular Therapeutix, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ocular Therapeutix Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ocular Therapeutix's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ocular Therapeutix's historical news coverage. Ocular Therapeutix's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.35 and 15.89, respectively. We have considered Ocular Therapeutix's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ocular Therapeutix is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ocular Therapeutix is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ocular Therapeutix Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ocular Therapeutix is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ocular Therapeutix backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ocular Therapeutix, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 4.77 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.12 | 11.12 | 0.00 |
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Ocular Therapeutix Hype Timeline
Ocular Therapeutix is now traded for 11.12. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Ocular is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ocular Therapeutix is about 1650.52%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.11. About 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.43. Ocular Therapeutix had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ocular Therapeutix to cross-verify your projections.Ocular Therapeutix Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ocular Therapeutix's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ocular Therapeutix's future price movements. Getting to know how Ocular Therapeutix's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ocular Therapeutix may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| QURE | Uniqure NV | 0.47 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 9.37 | (10.75) | 60.67 | |
| GLPG | Galapagos NV ADR | 0.11 | 38 per month | 1.24 | 0.05 | 2.62 | (2.52) | 7.08 | |
| GPCR | Structure Therapeutics American | (5.38) | 10 per month | 2.78 | 0.18 | 8.96 | (5.94) | 110.34 | |
| EWTX | Edgewise Therapeutics | 0.27 | 14 per month | 4.14 | 0.16 | 14.33 | (5.57) | 38.85 | |
| VRDN | Viridian Therapeutics | 0.33 | 9 per month | 1.88 | 0.15 | 5.57 | (2.22) | 15.86 | |
| MESO | Mesoblast | 0.10 | 9 per month | 3.22 | (0.0003) | 5.49 | (4.87) | 19.08 | |
| COGT | Cogent Biosciences | 0.32 | 9 per month | 2.38 | 0.13 | 5.94 | (4.91) | 126.24 | |
| RCUS | Arcus Biosciences | (0.04) | 10 per month | 4.11 | 0.08 | 6.88 | (6.93) | 21.81 | |
| LQDA | Liquidia Technologies | 0.99 | 9 per month | 3.24 | 0.22 | 8.00 | (4.84) | 19.63 | |
| IBRX | Immunitybio | (0.06) | 8 per month | 4.12 | 0.20 | 11.16 | (7.49) | 51.87 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ocular Therapeutix
For every potential investor in Ocular, whether a beginner or expert, Ocular Therapeutix's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ocular Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ocular. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ocular Therapeutix's price trends.Ocular Therapeutix Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ocular Therapeutix stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ocular Therapeutix could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ocular Therapeutix by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ocular Therapeutix Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ocular Therapeutix stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ocular Therapeutix shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ocular Therapeutix stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ocular Therapeutix entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ocular Therapeutix Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ocular Therapeutix's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ocular Therapeutix's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ocular stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.72 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.6 | |||
| Variance | 21.14 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ocular Therapeutix
The number of cover stories for Ocular Therapeutix depends on current market conditions and Ocular Therapeutix's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ocular Therapeutix is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ocular Therapeutix's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Ocular Therapeutix Short Properties
Ocular Therapeutix's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ocular Therapeutix's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ocular Therapeutix often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ocular Therapeutix's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ocular Therapeutix's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 158.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 392.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ocular Therapeutix to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Ocular Stock please use our How to buy in Ocular Stock guide.You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ocular Therapeutix. If investors know Ocular will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ocular Therapeutix listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.43) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Ocular Therapeutix is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ocular that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ocular Therapeutix's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ocular Therapeutix's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ocular Therapeutix's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ocular Therapeutix's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ocular Therapeutix's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ocular Therapeutix is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ocular Therapeutix's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.