ODP Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ODPDelisted Stock  USD 28.00  0.00  0.00%   
ODP Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The value of RSI of ODP Corp's share price is at 57. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling ODP Corp, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 57

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of ODP Corp's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ODP Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using ODP Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ODP Corp from the perspective of ODP Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ODP Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 27.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.77.

ODP Corp after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 28.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.

ODP Corp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine ODP price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ODP using various technical indicators. When you analyze ODP charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for ODP Corp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ODP Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

ODP Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ODP Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 27.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.77.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ODP Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ODP Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ODP Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ODP Corp  ODP Corp Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ODP Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ODP Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.9112
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.029
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.001
SAESum of the absolute errors1.7688
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ODP Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ODP Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for ODP Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ODP Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ODP Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
27.8928.0028.11
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
23.6323.7430.80
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
27.8527.9528.06
Details

ODP Corp After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of ODP Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ODP Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ODP Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

ODP Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting ODP Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ODP Corp's historical news coverage. ODP Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.89 and 28.11, respectively. We have considered ODP Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
28.00
28.00
After-hype Price
28.11
Upside
ODP Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ODP Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

ODP Corp Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ODP Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ODP Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ODP Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.02 
0.11
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
28.00
28.00
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

ODP Corp Hype Timeline

On the 25th of January ODP Corp is traded for 28.00. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. ODP is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on ODP Corp is about 2200.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.00. About 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.02. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. ODP Corp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.57. The entity last dividend was issued on the 28th of February 2020. The firm had 1:10 split on the 1st of July 2020. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain.
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.

ODP Corp Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to ODP Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ODP Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how ODP Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ODP Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

ODP Corp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ODP Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ODP Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ODP Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ODP Corp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ODP Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ODP Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ODP Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ODP Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ODP Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of ODP Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ODP Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting odp stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for ODP Corp

The number of cover stories for ODP Corp depends on current market conditions and ODP Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ODP Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ODP Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

ODP Corp Short Properties

ODP Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when ODP Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ODP Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ODP Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ODP Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding35 M
Cash And Short Term Investments166 M
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.
You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

Other Consideration for investing in ODP Stock

If you are still planning to invest in ODP Corp check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the ODP Corp's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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