OMV AG OTC Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

OMVKY Stock  USD 14.89  0.21  1.43%   
OMV OTC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of OMV AG's otc stock price is slightly above 61. This indicates that the otc stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling OMV, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 61

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
OMV AG PK stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of OMV AG shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of OMV AG's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of OMV AG and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from OMV AG's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with OMV AG PK, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of OMV AG based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using OMV AG hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of OMV AG PK from the perspective of OMV AG response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of OMV AG PK on the next trading day is expected to be 14.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.12.

OMV AG after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 14.87  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OMV AG to cross-verify your projections.

OMV AG Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine OMV price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for OMV using various technical indicators. When you analyze OMV charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through OMV AG price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

OMV AG Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of OMV AG PK on the next trading day is expected to be 14.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.12.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict OMV OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that OMV AG's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

OMV AG OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest OMV AG  OMV AG Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

OMV AG Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting OMV AG's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. OMV AG's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.01 and 15.64, respectively. We have considered OMV AG's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
14.89
14.33
Expected Value
15.64
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of OMV AG otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent OMV AG otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.274
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2115
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.015
SAESum of the absolute errors13.1156
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as OMV AG PK historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for OMV AG

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OMV AG PK. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.5514.8716.19
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.2415.5616.88
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
13.5514.1914.84
Details

OMV AG After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of OMV AG at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in OMV AG or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of OMV AG, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

OMV AG Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting OMV AG's otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on OMV AG's historical news coverage. OMV AG's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.55 and 16.19, respectively. We have considered OMV AG's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
14.89
14.87
After-hype Price
16.19
Upside
OMV AG is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of OMV AG PK is based on 3 months time horizon.

OMV AG OTC Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as OMV AG is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading OMV AG backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with OMV AG, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.14 
1.32
  0.02 
  0.04 
13 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
In about 13 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
14.89
14.87
0.13 
776.47  
Notes

OMV AG Hype Timeline

OMV AG PK is now traded for 14.89. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. OMV is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 14.87. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.13%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.14%. The volatility of related hype on OMV AG is about 412.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.85. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.78. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. OMV AG PK recorded earning per share (EPS) of 12.69. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of June 2022. The firm had 2:1 split on the 12th of July 2005. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 13 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OMV AG to cross-verify your projections.

OMV AG Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to OMV AG's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict OMV AG's future price movements. Getting to know how OMV AG's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how OMV AG may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for OMV AG

For every potential investor in OMV, whether a beginner or expert, OMV AG's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. OMV OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in OMV. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying OMV AG's price trends.

OMV AG Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with OMV AG otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of OMV AG could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing OMV AG by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

OMV AG Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how OMV AG otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading OMV AG shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying OMV AG otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify OMV AG PK entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

OMV AG Risk Indicators

The analysis of OMV AG's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in OMV AG's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting omv otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for OMV AG

The number of cover stories for OMV AG depends on current market conditions and OMV AG's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that OMV AG is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about OMV AG's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

OMV AG Short Properties

OMV AG's future price predictability will typically decrease when OMV AG's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of OMV AG PK often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential OMV AG's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. OMV AG's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding327.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments6.3 B

Additional Tools for OMV OTC Stock Analysis

When running OMV AG's price analysis, check to measure OMV AG's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy OMV AG is operating at the current time. Most of OMV AG's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of OMV AG's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move OMV AG's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of OMV AG to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.