Oncolytics Biotech Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ONCY Stock | USD 1.14 0.01 0.88% |
Oncolytics Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The RSI of Oncolytics Biotech's share price is at 54. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Oncolytics Biotech, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.07) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.36) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.34) | Wall Street Target Price 5.567 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.07) |
Using Oncolytics Biotech hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Oncolytics Biotech from the perspective of Oncolytics Biotech response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Oncolytics Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Oncolytics Biotech on the next trading day is expected to be 1.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.44.Oncolytics Biotech Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Oncolytics Biotech's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Oncolytics. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Oncolytics can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Oncolytics Biotech. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Oncolytics Biotech's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Oncolytics Biotech.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Oncolytics Biotech on the next trading day is expected to be 1.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.44. Oncolytics Biotech after-hype prediction price | USD 1.13 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Oncolytics | Build AI portfolio with Oncolytics Stock |
Oncolytics Biotech Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Oncolytics price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Oncolytics using various technical indicators. When you analyze Oncolytics charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Oncolytics Biotech's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2000-03-31 | Previous Quarter 14.6 M | Current Value 12.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 12.5 M |
Oncolytics Biotech Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Oncolytics Biotech on the next trading day is expected to be 1.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.44.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oncolytics Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oncolytics Biotech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Oncolytics Biotech Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Oncolytics Biotech | Oncolytics Biotech Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Oncolytics Biotech Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Oncolytics Biotech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oncolytics Biotech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 6.50, respectively. We have considered Oncolytics Biotech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oncolytics Biotech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oncolytics Biotech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.2039 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.04 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0391 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.441 |
Predictive Modules for Oncolytics Biotech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oncolytics Biotech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oncolytics Biotech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Oncolytics Biotech After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Oncolytics Biotech at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Oncolytics Biotech or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Oncolytics Biotech, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Oncolytics Biotech Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Oncolytics Biotech's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Oncolytics Biotech's historical news coverage. Oncolytics Biotech's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.06 and 6.38, respectively. We have considered Oncolytics Biotech's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Oncolytics Biotech is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Oncolytics Biotech is based on 3 months time horizon.
Oncolytics Biotech Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Oncolytics Biotech is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Oncolytics Biotech backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Oncolytics Biotech, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 5.25 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 11 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.14 | 1.13 | 0.00 |
|
Oncolytics Biotech Hype Timeline
Oncolytics Biotech is now traded for 1.14. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.02. Oncolytics is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Oncolytics Biotech is about 1715.69%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.16. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.29. Oncolytics Biotech last dividend was issued on the 25th of May 2018. The entity had 10:95 split on the 25th of May 2018. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oncolytics Biotech to cross-verify your projections.Oncolytics Biotech Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Oncolytics Biotech's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Oncolytics Biotech's future price movements. Getting to know how Oncolytics Biotech's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Oncolytics Biotech may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ATOS | Atossa Genetics | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 6.78 | (6.25) | 20.34 | |
| IMMX | Immix Biopharma | (0.05) | 7 per month | 4.30 | 0.14 | 15.04 | (8.41) | 28.79 | |
| WHWK | Whitehawk Therapeutics | (0.02) | 8 per month | 4.58 | 0.01 | 6.98 | (7.20) | 21.49 | |
| TIL | Instil Bio | 0.49 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 6.59 | (9.97) | 55.58 | |
| ZNTL | Zentalis Pharmaceuticals Llc | 0.02 | 9 per month | 3.72 | 0.12 | 17.36 | (8.33) | 45.93 | |
| MGNX | MacroGenics | 0.03 | 10 per month | 3.90 | 0.02 | 6.83 | (6.25) | 26.78 | |
| TVGN | Tevogen Bio Holdings | 0.03 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 10.00 | (8.89) | 26.81 | |
| COYA | Coya Therapeutics Common | (0.02) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.28 | (5.56) | 26.90 | |
| CLNN | Clene Inc | 0.43 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 10.11 | (14.19) | 47.42 | |
| SRZN | Surrozen | 2.17 | 8 per month | 4.17 | 0.11 | 12.23 | (6.75) | 34.29 |
Other Forecasting Options for Oncolytics Biotech
For every potential investor in Oncolytics, whether a beginner or expert, Oncolytics Biotech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oncolytics Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oncolytics. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oncolytics Biotech's price trends.Oncolytics Biotech Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oncolytics Biotech stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oncolytics Biotech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oncolytics Biotech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Oncolytics Biotech Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oncolytics Biotech stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oncolytics Biotech shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oncolytics Biotech stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Oncolytics Biotech entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Oncolytics Biotech Risk Indicators
The analysis of Oncolytics Biotech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oncolytics Biotech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oncolytics stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.64 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.13 | |||
| Variance | 26.34 | |||
| Downside Variance | 25.15 | |||
| Semi Variance | 19.82 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.03) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Oncolytics Biotech
The number of cover stories for Oncolytics Biotech depends on current market conditions and Oncolytics Biotech's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Oncolytics Biotech is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Oncolytics Biotech's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Oncolytics Biotech Short Properties
Oncolytics Biotech's future price predictability will typically decrease when Oncolytics Biotech's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Oncolytics Biotech often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Oncolytics Biotech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Oncolytics Biotech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 76.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 15.9 M |
Additional Tools for Oncolytics Stock Analysis
When running Oncolytics Biotech's price analysis, check to measure Oncolytics Biotech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Oncolytics Biotech is operating at the current time. Most of Oncolytics Biotech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Oncolytics Biotech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Oncolytics Biotech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Oncolytics Biotech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.