Oracle Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| ORCL Stock | USD 177.16 1.02 0.57% |
Oracle Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Oracle's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Oracle's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Oracle fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength indicator of Oracle's share price is approaching 34. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Oracle, making its price go up or down. Momentum 34
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.909 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.3588 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.9403 | Wall Street Target Price 288.2613 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.6372 |
Using Oracle hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Oracle from the perspective of Oracle response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Oracle using Oracle's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Oracle using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Oracle's stock price.
Oracle Short Interest
An investor who is long Oracle may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Oracle and may potentially protect profits, hedge Oracle with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 218.6058 | Short Percent 0.0158 | Short Ratio 0.86 | Shares Short Prior Month 25.3 M | 50 Day MA 200.6628 |
Oracle Relative Strength Index
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Oracle on the next trading day is expected to be 174.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 360.17.Oracle Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Oracle's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Oracle. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Oracle can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Oracle. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Oracle's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Oracle.
Oracle Implied Volatility | 0.56 |
Oracle's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Oracle stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Oracle's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Oracle stock will not fluctuate a lot when Oracle's options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Oracle on the next trading day is expected to be 174.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 360.17. Oracle after-hype prediction price | USD 177.16 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oracle to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Oracle contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Oracle will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.035% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Oracle trading at USD 177.16, that is roughly USD 0.062 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Oracle's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Oracle options at the current volatility level of 0.56%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Oracle Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Oracle's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Oracle's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Oracle stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Oracle's open interest, investors have to compare it to Oracle's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Oracle is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Oracle. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Oracle Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Oracle price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Oracle using various technical indicators. When you analyze Oracle charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Oracle Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Oracle on the next trading day is expected to be 174.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.90, mean absolute percentage error of 70.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 360.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oracle Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oracle's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Oracle Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Oracle | Oracle Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Oracle Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Oracle's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oracle's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 171.69 and 177.87, respectively. We have considered Oracle's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oracle stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oracle stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.3669 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.9045 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0289 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 360.1735 |
Predictive Modules for Oracle
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oracle. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oracle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Oracle After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Oracle at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Oracle or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Oracle, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Oracle Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Oracle's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Oracle's historical news coverage. Oracle's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 174.07 and 180.25, respectively. We have considered Oracle's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Oracle is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Oracle is based on 3 months time horizon.
Oracle Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Oracle is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Oracle backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Oracle, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.69 | 3.09 | 5.02 | 0.46 | 6 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
177.16 | 177.16 | 0.00 |
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Oracle Hype Timeline
Oracle is now traded for 177.16. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -5.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.46. Oracle is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 42.5%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.69%. %. The volatility of related hype on Oracle is about 468.18%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 177.62. About 41.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.63. Oracle recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.31. The entity last dividend was issued on the 9th of January 2026. The firm had 2:1 split on the 13th of October 2000. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oracle to cross-verify your projections.Oracle Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Oracle's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Oracle's future price movements. Getting to know how Oracle's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Oracle may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.74 | (5.85) | 15.34 | |
| SNPS | Synopsys | (0.30) | 22 per month | 2.10 | 0.03 | 3.78 | (3.17) | 9.95 | |
| ADBE | Adobe Systems Incorporated | 9.52 | 15 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.13 | (2.62) | 10.74 | |
| RDWR | Radware | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.90 | (3.00) | 6.78 | |
| IIIV | i3 Verticals | 0.73 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 2.73 | (4.24) | 14.05 | |
| SAP | SAP SE ADR | (3.13) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 1.52 | (2.86) | 5.85 | |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.95 | 0.15 | 5.37 | (3.44) | 11.56 | |
| WIX | WixCom | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 5.16 | (4.31) | 27.47 | |
| HPAI | Helport AI Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.79 | 0.06 | 7.14 | (5.67) | 18.92 | |
| FTNT | Fortinet | (0.22) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.47 | (2.63) | 8.99 |
Other Forecasting Options for Oracle
For every potential investor in Oracle, whether a beginner or expert, Oracle's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oracle Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oracle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oracle's price trends.Oracle Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oracle stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oracle could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oracle by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Oracle Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oracle stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oracle shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oracle stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Oracle entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Oracle Risk Indicators
The analysis of Oracle's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oracle's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oracle stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.03 | |||
| Variance | 9.17 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Oracle
The number of cover stories for Oracle depends on current market conditions and Oracle's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Oracle is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Oracle's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Oracle Short Properties
Oracle's future price predictability will typically decrease when Oracle's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Oracle often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Oracle's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Oracle's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.2 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oracle to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Oracle Stock please use our How to buy in Oracle Stock guide.You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Is Systems Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Oracle. If investors know Oracle will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Oracle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.909 | Dividend Share 2 | Earnings Share 5.31 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.142 |
The market value of Oracle is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Oracle that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Oracle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Oracle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Oracle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Oracle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Oracle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Oracle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Oracle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.