Orient Press Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ORIENTLTD | 111.71 9.15 8.92% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Orient Press Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 111.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 188.03. Orient Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Orient Press' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Orient Press' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Orient Press fundamentals over time.
Orient |
Orient Press Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Orient Press Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 111.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.13, mean absolute percentage error of 17.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 188.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Orient Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Orient Press' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Orient Press Stock Forecast Pattern
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Orient Press Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Orient Press' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Orient Press' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 107.89 and 115.53, respectively. We have considered Orient Press' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Orient Press stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Orient Press stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.1459 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1945 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.1338 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0288 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 188.03 |
Predictive Modules for Orient Press
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Orient Press Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Orient Press
For every potential investor in Orient, whether a beginner or expert, Orient Press' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Orient Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Orient. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Orient Press' price trends.Orient Press Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Orient Press stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Orient Press could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Orient Press by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Orient Press Limited Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Orient Press' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Orient Press' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Orient Press Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Orient Press stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Orient Press shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Orient Press stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Orient Press Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Orient Press Risk Indicators
The analysis of Orient Press' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Orient Press' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting orient stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.79 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.9 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.64 | |||
| Variance | 13.25 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.64 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.43 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.36) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Orient Stock
Orient Press financial ratios help investors to determine whether Orient Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Orient with respect to the benefits of owning Orient Press security.