ORIX Pink Sheet Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| ORXCF Stock | USD 29.72 0.00 0.00% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of ORIX Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 29.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.96. ORIX Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ORIX's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of ORIX's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using ORIX hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ORIX Corporation from the perspective of ORIX response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of ORIX Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 29.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.96. ORIX after-hype prediction price | USD 29.69 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
ORIX |
ORIX Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ORIX price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ORIX using various technical indicators. When you analyze ORIX charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ORIX Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of ORIX Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 29.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66, mean absolute percentage error of 0.71, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.96.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ORIX Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ORIX's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ORIX Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ORIX | ORIX Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ORIX Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ORIX's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ORIX's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.30 and 32.39, respectively. We have considered ORIX's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ORIX pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ORIX pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7618 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6551 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0249 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.9634 |
Predictive Modules for ORIX
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ORIX. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ORIX's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ORIX After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ORIX at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ORIX or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of ORIX, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ORIX Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ORIX's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ORIX's historical news coverage. ORIX's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.65 and 32.73, respectively. We have considered ORIX's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ORIX is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ORIX is based on 3 months time horizon.
ORIX Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ORIX is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ORIX backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ORIX, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 3.04 | 0.03 | 0.35 | 14 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 14 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
29.72 | 29.69 | 0.10 |
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ORIX Hype Timeline
ORIX is now traded for 29.72. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.35. ORIX is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 29.69. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.23%. The volatility of related hype on ORIX is about 201.73%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.37. About 44.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.74. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. ORIX last dividend was issued on the 30th of March 2023. The entity had 10:1 split on the 27th of March 2013. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 14 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ORIX to cross-verify your projections.ORIX Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ORIX's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ORIX's future price movements. Getting to know how ORIX's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ORIX may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ABMRF | ABN AMRO Bank | 0.18 | 12 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 4.66 | (3.49) | 11.01 | |
| FCNCA | First Citizens BancShares | (17.33) | 12 per month | 0.58 | 0.25 | 2.60 | (1.28) | 6.40 | |
| BDORY | Banco Do Brasil | 0.18 | 4 per month | 2.40 | 0.07 | 4.26 | (3.30) | 13.24 | |
| NRSCF | Nomura Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.15 | 2.32 | 0.00 | 11.98 | |
| BNCZF | Banco Bpm SpA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 0.07 | (0.34) | 12.99 | |
| FANDF | FirstRand Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| CNICF | China International Capital | 0.76 | 15 per month | 0.00 | (0.72) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.86 | |
| AIBGY | AIB Group plc | 0.38 | 16 per month | 1.15 | 0.18 | 3.31 | (2.59) | 7.20 | |
| PPERF | Bank Mandiri Persero | 0.76 | 28 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 36.00 | |
| CMAKY | China Minsh | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.30 | (7.49) | 26.06 |
Other Forecasting Options for ORIX
For every potential investor in ORIX, whether a beginner or expert, ORIX's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ORIX Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ORIX. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ORIX's price trends.ORIX Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ORIX pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ORIX could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ORIX by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ORIX Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ORIX pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ORIX shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ORIX pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify ORIX Corporation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ORIX Risk Indicators
The analysis of ORIX's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ORIX's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting orix pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.9 | |||
| Variance | 8.41 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ORIX
The number of cover stories for ORIX depends on current market conditions and ORIX's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ORIX is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ORIX's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in ORIX Pink Sheet
ORIX financial ratios help investors to determine whether ORIX Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ORIX with respect to the benefits of owning ORIX security.