Autohellas Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| OTOEL Stock | EUR 13.20 0.14 1.05% |
Autohellas Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Autohellas stock prices and determine the direction of Autohellas SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Autohellas' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the value of rsi of Autohellas' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Autohellas hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Autohellas SA from the perspective of Autohellas response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Autohellas SA on the next trading day is expected to be 13.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.44. Autohellas after-hype prediction price | EUR 13.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Autohellas |
Autohellas Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Autohellas price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Autohellas using various technical indicators. When you analyze Autohellas charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Autohellas Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Autohellas SA on the next trading day is expected to be 13.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.44.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Autohellas Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Autohellas' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Autohellas Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Autohellas | Autohellas Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Autohellas Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Autohellas' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Autohellas' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.58 and 14.82, respectively. We have considered Autohellas' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Autohellas stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Autohellas stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.0315 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0293 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1407 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0114 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.44 |
Predictive Modules for Autohellas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Autohellas SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Autohellas After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Autohellas at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Autohellas or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Autohellas, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Autohellas Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Autohellas' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Autohellas' historical news coverage. Autohellas' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.59 and 14.81, respectively. We have considered Autohellas' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Autohellas is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Autohellas SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Autohellas Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Autohellas is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Autohellas backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Autohellas, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 1.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
13.20 | 13.20 | 0.00 |
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Autohellas Hype Timeline
Autohellas SA is now traded for 13.20on Athens Exchange of Greece. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Autohellas is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.26%. %. The volatility of related hype on Autohellas is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.20. About 60.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.54. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Autohellas SA last dividend was issued on the 5th of December 2022. The entity had 4:1 split on the 25th of June 2019. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Autohellas to cross-verify your projections.Autohellas Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Autohellas' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Autohellas' future price movements. Getting to know how Autohellas' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Autohellas may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LAMPS | Lampsa Hellenic Hotels | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.24 | (2.16) | 5.71 | |
| FOODL | Foodlink AE | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.00 | (0.02) | 3.17 | (3.62) | 18.47 | |
| ETE | National Bank of | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.44 | 0.10 | 3.42 | (2.56) | 9.46 | |
| INKAT | Intracom Constructions Societe | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.38 | 0.23 | 2.80 | (1.47) | 8.66 | |
| INLIF | Interlife General Insurance | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.34 | (0) | 4.05 | (2.62) | 7.98 | |
| PROF | Profile Systems Software | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.21 | 0.01 | 2.94 | (1.76) | 8.43 | |
| INTET | Intertech SA Inter | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.50 | (3.36) | 9.16 |
Other Forecasting Options for Autohellas
For every potential investor in Autohellas, whether a beginner or expert, Autohellas' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Autohellas Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Autohellas. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Autohellas' price trends.Autohellas Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Autohellas stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Autohellas could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Autohellas by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Autohellas Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Autohellas stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Autohellas shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Autohellas stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Autohellas SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Autohellas Risk Indicators
The analysis of Autohellas' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Autohellas' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting autohellas stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Variance | 2.47 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.36 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.19) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Autohellas
The number of cover stories for Autohellas depends on current market conditions and Autohellas' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Autohellas is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Autohellas' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Autohellas Short Properties
Autohellas' future price predictability will typically decrease when Autohellas' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Autohellas SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Autohellas' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Autohellas' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 48.1 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 11.1 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 170.2 M |
Other Information on Investing in Autohellas Stock
Autohellas financial ratios help investors to determine whether Autohellas Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Autohellas with respect to the benefits of owning Autohellas security.