Ouster Common Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

OUST Stock  USD 24.41  0.24  0.99%   
Ouster Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Ouster Common's share price is approaching 44. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ouster Common, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 44

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Ouster Common's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ouster Common Stock, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Ouster Common hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ouster Common Stock from the perspective of Ouster Common response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ouster Common Stock on the next trading day is expected to be 24.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.76.

Ouster Common after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 24.41  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ouster Common to cross-verify your projections.

Ouster Common Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Ouster price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ouster using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ouster charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Ouster Common - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Ouster Common prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Ouster Common price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Ouster Common Stock.

Ouster Common Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ouster Common Stock on the next trading day is expected to be 24.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03, mean absolute percentage error of 1.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.76.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ouster Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ouster Common's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ouster Common Stock Forecast Pattern

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Ouster Common Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ouster Common's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ouster Common's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.15 and 28.97, respectively. We have considered Ouster Common's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
24.41
24.06
Expected Value
28.97
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ouster Common stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ouster Common stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1761
MADMean absolute deviation1.0298
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0422
SAESum of the absolute errors60.7593
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Ouster Common observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Ouster Common Stock observations.

Predictive Modules for Ouster Common

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ouster Common Stock. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ouster Common's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.5024.4129.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.7621.6726.58
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
20.5024.8329.16
Details

Ouster Common After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Ouster Common at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ouster Common or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ouster Common, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Ouster Common Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Ouster Common's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ouster Common's historical news coverage. Ouster Common's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.50 and 29.32, respectively. We have considered Ouster Common's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
24.41
24.41
After-hype Price
29.32
Upside
Ouster Common is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ouster Common Stock is based on 3 months time horizon.

Ouster Common Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ouster Common is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ouster Common backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ouster Common, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.47 
4.91
  0.09 
  0.05 
8 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
24.41
24.41
0.00 
2,584  
Notes

Ouster Common Hype Timeline

Ouster Common Stock is now traded for 24.41. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Ouster is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.47%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ouster Common is about 4249.04%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.36. About 57.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.63. Ouster Common Stock had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:10 split on the 21st of April 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ouster Common to cross-verify your projections.

Ouster Common Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Ouster Common's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ouster Common's future price movements. Getting to know how Ouster Common's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ouster Common may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Ouster Common

For every potential investor in Ouster, whether a beginner or expert, Ouster Common's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ouster Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ouster. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ouster Common's price trends.

Ouster Common Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ouster Common stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ouster Common could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ouster Common by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ouster Common Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ouster Common stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ouster Common shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ouster Common stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ouster Common Stock entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ouster Common Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ouster Common's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ouster Common's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ouster stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Ouster Common

The number of cover stories for Ouster Common depends on current market conditions and Ouster Common's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ouster Common is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ouster Common's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Ouster Common Short Properties

Ouster Common's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ouster Common's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ouster Common Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ouster Common's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ouster Common's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding46.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments172 M

Additional Tools for Ouster Stock Analysis

When running Ouster Common's price analysis, check to measure Ouster Common's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ouster Common is operating at the current time. Most of Ouster Common's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ouster Common's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ouster Common's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ouster Common to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.