Occidental Petroleum Stock Forward View
| OXY Stock | USD 46.31 1.22 2.71% |
Occidental Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Occidental Petroleum's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4717 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.1971 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.1797 | Wall Street Target Price 48.9384 |
Using Occidental Petroleum hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Occidental Petroleum from the perspective of Occidental Petroleum response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Occidental Petroleum using Occidental Petroleum's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Occidental using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Occidental Petroleum's stock price.
Occidental Petroleum Short Interest
An investor who is long Occidental Petroleum may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Occidental Petroleum and may potentially protect profits, hedge Occidental Petroleum with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 43.178 | Short Percent 0.0593 | Short Ratio 3.3 | Shares Short Prior Month 37.5 M | 50 Day MA 42.2792 |
Occidental Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Occidental Petroleum on the next trading day is expected to be 46.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.75.Occidental Petroleum Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Occidental Petroleum's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Occidental. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Occidental can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Occidental Petroleum. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Occidental Petroleum's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Occidental Petroleum.
Occidental Petroleum Implied Volatility | 0.38 |
Occidental Petroleum's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Occidental Petroleum stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Occidental Petroleum's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Occidental Petroleum stock will not fluctuate a lot when Occidental Petroleum's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Occidental Petroleum on the next trading day is expected to be 46.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.75. Occidental Petroleum after-hype prediction price | USD 46.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Occidental | Build AI portfolio with Occidental Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Occidental contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Occidental Petroleum will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0238% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Occidental Petroleum trading at USD 46.31, that is roughly USD 0.011 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Occidental Petroleum's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Occidental Petroleum options at the current volatility level of 0.38%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Occidental Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Occidental Petroleum's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Occidental Petroleum's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Occidental Petroleum stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Occidental Petroleum's open interest, investors have to compare it to Occidental Petroleum's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Occidental Petroleum is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Occidental. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Occidental Petroleum Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Occidental price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Occidental using various technical indicators. When you analyze Occidental charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Occidental Petroleum's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 2.3 B | Current Value 2.2 B | Quarterly Volatility 1.2 B |
Occidental Petroleum Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Occidental Petroleum on the next trading day is expected to be 46.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58, mean absolute percentage error of 0.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Occidental Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Occidental Petroleum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Occidental Petroleum Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Occidental Petroleum | Occidental Petroleum Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Occidental Petroleum Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Occidental Petroleum's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Occidental Petroleum's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.17 and 48.03, respectively. We have considered Occidental Petroleum's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Occidental Petroleum stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Occidental Petroleum stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.2573 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5766 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0137 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 35.7522 |
Predictive Modules for Occidental Petroleum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Occidental Petroleum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Occidental Petroleum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Occidental Petroleum After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Occidental Petroleum at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Occidental Petroleum or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Occidental Petroleum, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Occidental Petroleum Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Occidental Petroleum's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Occidental Petroleum's historical news coverage. Occidental Petroleum's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 44.55 and 48.25, respectively. We have considered Occidental Petroleum's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Occidental Petroleum is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Occidental Petroleum is based on 3 months time horizon.
Occidental Petroleum Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Occidental Petroleum is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Occidental Petroleum backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Occidental Petroleum, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 1.93 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
46.31 | 46.40 | 0.19 |
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Occidental Petroleum Hype Timeline
On the 7th of February Occidental Petroleum is traded for 46.31. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Occidental is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 46.4 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Occidental Petroleum is about 1340.28%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 46.28. The company reported the last year's revenue of 27.1 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 3.1 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 16.91 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Occidental Petroleum to cross-verify your projections.Occidental Petroleum Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Occidental Petroleum's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Occidental Petroleum's future price movements. Getting to know how Occidental Petroleum's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Occidental Petroleum may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FANG | Diamondback Energy | (1.93) | 9 per month | 1.66 | 0.1 | 3.36 | (3.24) | 8.37 | |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 0.1 | 7 per month | 2.10 | (0.02) | 3.15 | (3.55) | 11.67 | |
| OKE | ONEOK Inc | (1.33) | 8 per month | 1.28 | 0.17 | 2.69 | (2.34) | 7.19 | |
| IMO | Imperial Oil | 2.39 | 9 per month | 1.60 | 0.14 | 3.60 | (2.64) | 8.06 | |
| TRGP | Targa Resources | 0.61 | 7 per month | 1.14 | 0.23 | 3.12 | (2.76) | 8.49 | |
| ET | Energy Transfer LP | 0.23 | 10 per month | 0.72 | 0.07 | 2.20 | (1.45) | 4.31 | |
| WDS | Woodside Energy Group | (0.15) | 7 per month | 1.52 | 0.05 | 2.57 | (2.21) | 7.90 | |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy | (0.90) | 10 per month | 1.11 | (0.04) | 1.95 | (1.78) | 4.89 | |
| SU | Suncor Energy | (0.25) | 9 per month | 0.70 | 0.29 | 2.77 | (1.62) | 7.59 | |
| BKR | Baker Hughes Co | (0.21) | 8 per month | 1.79 | 0.11 | 4.04 | (3.68) | 8.14 |
Other Forecasting Options for Occidental Petroleum
For every potential investor in Occidental, whether a beginner or expert, Occidental Petroleum's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Occidental Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Occidental. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Occidental Petroleum's price trends.Occidental Petroleum Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Occidental Petroleum stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Occidental Petroleum could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Occidental Petroleum by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Occidental Petroleum Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Occidental Petroleum stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Occidental Petroleum shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Occidental Petroleum stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Occidental Petroleum entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 291851.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.7871 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 45.63 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 45.85 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.3 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.22 |
Occidental Petroleum Risk Indicators
The analysis of Occidental Petroleum's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Occidental Petroleum's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting occidental stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.56 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Variance | 3.66 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.0 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.43 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.72) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Occidental Petroleum
The number of cover stories for Occidental Petroleum depends on current market conditions and Occidental Petroleum's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Occidental Petroleum is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Occidental Petroleum's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Occidental Petroleum Short Properties
Occidental Petroleum's future price predictability will typically decrease when Occidental Petroleum's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Occidental Petroleum often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Occidental Petroleum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Occidental Petroleum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 967.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.1 B |
Additional Tools for Occidental Stock Analysis
When running Occidental Petroleum's price analysis, check to measure Occidental Petroleum's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Occidental Petroleum is operating at the current time. Most of Occidental Petroleum's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Occidental Petroleum's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Occidental Petroleum's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Occidental Petroleum to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.