PACCAR Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

PCAR Stock   56,150  450.00  0.80%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of PACCAR Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 57,440 with a mean absolute deviation of 1,515 and the sum of the absolute errors of 92,443. PACCAR Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast PACCAR stock prices and determine the direction of PACCAR Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of PACCAR's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the value of rsi of PACCAR's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of PACCAR's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with PACCAR Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using PACCAR hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PACCAR Inc from the perspective of PACCAR response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of PACCAR Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 57,440 with a mean absolute deviation of 1,515 and the sum of the absolute errors of 92,443.

PACCAR after-hype prediction price

    
  ARS 56150.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out fundamental analysis of PACCAR to check your projections.

PACCAR Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine PACCAR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PACCAR using various technical indicators. When you analyze PACCAR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through PACCAR price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

PACCAR Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of PACCAR Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 57,440 with a mean absolute deviation of 1,515, mean absolute percentage error of 4,284,816, and the sum of the absolute errors of 92,443.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PACCAR Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PACCAR's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

PACCAR Stock Forecast Pattern

PACCAR Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting PACCAR's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PACCAR's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 57,437 and 57,442, respectively. We have considered PACCAR's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
56,150
57,437
Downside
57,440
Expected Value
57,442
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PACCAR stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PACCAR stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria133.3811
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1515.4598
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0301
SAESum of the absolute errors92443.0479
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as PACCAR Inc historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for PACCAR

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PACCAR Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
56,14856,15056,152
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
53,58953,59161,765
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
50,11354,84359,572
Details

Other Forecasting Options for PACCAR

For every potential investor in PACCAR, whether a beginner or expert, PACCAR's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PACCAR Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PACCAR. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PACCAR's price trends.

PACCAR Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PACCAR stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PACCAR could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PACCAR by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

PACCAR Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of PACCAR's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of PACCAR's current price.

PACCAR Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PACCAR stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PACCAR shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PACCAR stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PACCAR Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

PACCAR Risk Indicators

The analysis of PACCAR's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PACCAR's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting paccar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in PACCAR Stock

When determining whether PACCAR Inc is a strong investment it is important to analyze PACCAR's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact PACCAR's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding PACCAR Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out fundamental analysis of PACCAR to check your projections.
You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Please note, there is a significant difference between PACCAR's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if PACCAR is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, PACCAR's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.