PGE Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for PGE Corp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of PGE Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

PGE Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of PGE Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 159.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.61, mean absolute percentage error of 3.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 98.49.

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PGE Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PGE Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of PGE Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict PGE Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for PGE Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PGE Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 156.84 156.84 156.84 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 130.43 130.43 172.52 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as PGE Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against PGE Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, PGE Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in PGE Corp.

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