Public Service Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PEG Stock | USD 92.35 1.86 2.06% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Public Service Enterprise on the next trading day is expected to be 95.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.74. Public Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Public Service's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Public |
Public Service Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Public Service's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1994-03-31 | Previous Quarter 123 M | Current Value 203 M | Quarterly Volatility 361.5 M |
Public Service Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Public Service Enterprise on the next trading day is expected to be 95.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00, mean absolute percentage error of 1.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Public Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Public Service's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Public Service Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Public Service | Public Service Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Public Service Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Public Service's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Public Service's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 93.72 and 96.70, respectively. We have considered Public Service's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Public Service stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Public Service stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.5162 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9957 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0115 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 61.7357 |
Predictive Modules for Public Service
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Public Service Enterprise. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Public Service's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Public Service
For every potential investor in Public, whether a beginner or expert, Public Service's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Public Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Public. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Public Service's price trends.View Public Service Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Public Service Enterprise Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Public Service's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Public Service's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Public Service Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Public Service stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Public Service shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Public Service stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Public Service Enterprise entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Public Service Risk Indicators
The analysis of Public Service's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Public Service's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting public stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Variance | 2.09 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.76 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.1 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.10) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Public Service Enterprise is a strong investment it is important to analyze Public Service's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Public Service's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Public Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Public Service to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Is Multi-Utilities space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Public Service. If investors know Public will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Public Service listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.852 | Dividend Share 2.37 | Earnings Share 4.07 | Revenue Per Share 20.912 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.076 |
The market value of Public Service Enterprise is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Public that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Public Service's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Public Service's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Public Service's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Public Service's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Public Service's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Public Service is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Public Service's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.