Procter Gamble Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

PG Stock

USD 148.18 3.56 2.46%

Procter Gamble's Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The Triple Exponential Smoothing model projects Procter Gamble at 148.85 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. The Triple Exponential Smoothing output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.

Triple exponential smoothing (Holt-Winters method) for Procter Gamble extends the double exponential model by adding a seasonality component. It simultaneously estimates the level, trend, and periodic pattern in Procter Gamble price series.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of April

Over a 90-day horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing model forecasts Procter Gamble at 148.85 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 1.64 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 96.53 .

This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Procter Gamble's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Procter Gamble Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

The projected range for Procter Gamble reflects the model's ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios for the next trading day. The model places downside around 147.52 and upside around 150.18 for the next session. The narrow range indicates limited short-term dispersion.

Market Value

148.18

147.52

Downside

148.85

Expected Value

150.18

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Triple Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for Procter Gamble stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	Huge
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	0.159
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	1.6362
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0108
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	96.5329

This model is designed for Procter Gamble price data that exhibits both a directional trend and recurring seasonal patterns. If the underlying series lacks seasonality, simpler models may produce tighter forecasts with fewer parameters. As with all exponential smoothing methods, recent observations carry the greatest weight in the forecast.

Other Forecasting Options for Procter Gamble

Analyzing Procter Gamble's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in Procter Gamble's chart signal overbought or oversold conditions.

Procter Gamble Related Equities

These stocks within the Consumer Staples space are often compared to Procter Gamble by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. How Procter Gamble ranks within this group can shift over time as the competitive picture changes. This peer set gives the context needed for a well-rounded view of Procter Gamble.

The Coca Cola Unilever PLC ADR Costco Wholesale Corp Kenvue Inc Colgate Palmolive Philip Morris International Kimberly Clark Edgewell Personal Care Spectrum Brands Holdings The Clorox American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup

Risk & Return

Correlation

Procter Gamble Market Strength Events

For investors tracking Procter Gamble, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in Procter Gamble.

	Accumulation Distribution	0.0291
	Daily Balance Of Power	0.8054
	Rate Of Daily Change	1.02
	Day Median Price	149.84
	Day Typical Price	149.29
	Market Facilitation Index	4.42
	Price Action Indicator	0.12
	Period Momentum Indicator	3.56
	Relative Strength Index	53.65

Procter Gamble Risk Indicators

Analyzing Procter Gamble's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for procter stock. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for Procter Gamble.

	Mean Deviation	1.1
	Semi Deviation	1.27
	Standard Deviation	1.36
	Variance	1.84
	Downside Variance	1.72
	Semi Variance	1.61
	Expected Short fall	-1.18

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Procter Gamble Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Procter Gamble is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.

	Common Stock Shares Outstanding	2.5 B
	Cash And Short Term Investments	9.6 B

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average