Procter Gamble Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

PG Stock  USD 156.87  1.55  1.00%   
Procter Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Procter Gamble's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 5th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Procter Gamble's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Procter Gamble's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Procter Gamble and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Procter Gamble's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Procter Gamble, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Procter Gamble's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.05)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.5818
EPS Estimate Current Year
6.9687
EPS Estimate Next Year
7.3184
Wall Street Target Price
167.4545
Using Procter Gamble hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Procter Gamble from the perspective of Procter Gamble response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Procter Gamble using Procter Gamble's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Procter using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Procter Gamble's stock price.

Procter Gamble Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Procter Gamble's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Procter. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Procter Gamble stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
153.8096
Short Percent
0.0082
Short Ratio
1.81
Shares Short Prior Month
17.8 M
50 Day MA
145.605

Procter Relative Strength Index

The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Procter Gamble on the next trading day is expected to be 156.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 84.39.

Procter Gamble Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Procter Gamble's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Procter. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Procter can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Procter Gamble. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Procter Gamble's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Procter Gamble.

Procter Gamble Implied Volatility

    
  0.31  
Procter Gamble's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Procter Gamble stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Procter Gamble's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Procter Gamble stock will not fluctuate a lot when Procter Gamble's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Procter Gamble on the next trading day is expected to be 156.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 84.39.

Procter Gamble after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 157.24  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Procter Gamble to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Procter Stock please use our How to Invest in Procter Gamble guide.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Procter contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Procter Gamble will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0194% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Procter Gamble trading at USD 156.87, that is roughly USD 0.0304 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Procter Gamble's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Procter Gamble options at the current volatility level of 0.31%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Procter Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Procter Gamble's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Procter Gamble's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Procter Gamble stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Procter Gamble's open interest, investors have to compare it to Procter Gamble's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Procter Gamble is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Procter. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Procter Gamble Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Procter price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Procter using various technical indicators. When you analyze Procter charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Procter Gamble simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Procter Gamble are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Procter Gamble prices get older.

Procter Gamble Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Procter Gamble on the next trading day is expected to be 156.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.38, mean absolute percentage error of 3.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 84.39.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Procter Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Procter Gamble's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Procter Gamble Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Procter Gamble  Procter Gamble Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Procter Gamble Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Procter Gamble's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Procter Gamble's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 155.65 and 158.09, respectively. We have considered Procter Gamble's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
156.87
155.65
Downside
156.87
Expected Value
158.09
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Procter Gamble stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Procter Gamble stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.2189
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.193
MADMean absolute deviation1.3834
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0095
SAESum of the absolute errors84.39
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Procter Gamble forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Procter Gamble observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Procter Gamble

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Procter Gamble. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
156.03157.24158.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
155.46156.67157.88
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
135.40145.84156.28
Details
25 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
152.38167.45185.87
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Procter Gamble. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Procter Gamble's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Procter Gamble's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Procter Gamble.

Procter Gamble After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Procter Gamble at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Procter Gamble or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Procter Gamble, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Procter Gamble Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Procter Gamble's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Procter Gamble's historical news coverage. Procter Gamble's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 156.03 and 158.45, respectively. We have considered Procter Gamble's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
156.87
156.03
Downside
157.24
After-hype Price
158.45
Upside
Procter Gamble is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Procter Gamble is based on 3 months time horizon.

Procter Gamble Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Procter Gamble is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Procter Gamble backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Procter Gamble, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.13 
1.22
  0.34 
  0.12 
7 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
156.87
157.24
0.24 
46.74  
Notes

Procter Gamble Hype Timeline

As of February 5, 2026 Procter Gamble is listed for 156.87. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.34, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.12. Procter is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 157.24 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 46.74%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.24%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on Procter Gamble is about 127.08%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 156.75. The company generated the yearly revenue of 84.28 B. Reported Net Income was 16.07 B with gross profit of 43.64 B. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Procter Gamble to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Procter Stock please use our How to Invest in Procter Gamble guide.

Procter Gamble Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Procter Gamble's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Procter Gamble's future price movements. Getting to know how Procter Gamble's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Procter Gamble may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
KOThe Coca Cola 1.11 8 per month 0.57  0.12  2.07 (1.34) 4.23 
ULUnilever PLC ADR(0.02)8 per month 1.65  0  1.93 (1.81) 8.92 
COSTCostco Wholesale Corp(8.74)6 per month 0.91  0.03  2.00 (1.58) 4.90 
KVUEKenvue Inc 0.04 10 per month 0.67  0.17  2.39 (1.19) 15.22 
CLColgate Palmolive(0.29)7 per month 1.03  0.19  2.09 (2.16) 6.59 
PMPhilip Morris International 0.48 9 per month 1.07  0.19  2.39 (2.06) 7.92 
KMBKimberly Clark(1.17)7 per month 0.00 (0.12) 2.17 (1.46) 14.57 
EPCEdgewell Personal Care(0.31)10 per month 1.99  0.03  3.32 (2.77) 8.34 
SPBSpectrum Brands Holdings(1.48)9 per month 1.58  0.14  3.51 (2.75) 13.62 
CLXThe Clorox 0.78 8 per month 1.52  0.02  2.43 (2.49) 7.64 

Other Forecasting Options for Procter Gamble

For every potential investor in Procter, whether a beginner or expert, Procter Gamble's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Procter Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Procter. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Procter Gamble's price trends.

Procter Gamble Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Procter Gamble stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Procter Gamble could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Procter Gamble by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Procter Gamble Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Procter Gamble stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Procter Gamble shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Procter Gamble stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Procter Gamble entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Procter Gamble Risk Indicators

The analysis of Procter Gamble's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Procter Gamble's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting procter stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Procter Gamble

The number of cover stories for Procter Gamble depends on current market conditions and Procter Gamble's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Procter Gamble is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Procter Gamble's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Procter Gamble Short Properties

Procter Gamble's future price predictability will typically decrease when Procter Gamble's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Procter Gamble often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Procter Gamble's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Procter Gamble's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding2.5 B
Cash And Short Term Investments9.6 B
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Procter Gamble to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Procter Stock please use our How to Invest in Procter Gamble guide.
You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Can Household Products industry sustain growth momentum? Does Procter have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Procter Gamble. Anticipated expansion of Procter directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating Procter Gamble demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.05)
Dividend Share
4.177
Earnings Share
6.76
Revenue Per Share
36.398
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.015
Investors evaluate Procter Gamble using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Procter Gamble's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Procter Gamble's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Procter Gamble's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Procter Gamble should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Procter Gamble's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.