Pagaya Technologies Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PGY Stock | USD 22.08 0.52 2.41% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pagaya Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 20.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.31. Pagaya Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of Pagaya Technologies' share price is approaching 44 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Pagaya Technologies, making its price go up or down. Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Pagaya Technologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Pagaya Technologies from the perspective of Pagaya Technologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pagaya Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 20.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.31. Pagaya Technologies after-hype prediction price | USD 0.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pagaya Technologies to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Pagaya Stock please use our How to Invest in Pagaya Technologies guide.Pagaya Technologies Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Pagaya price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pagaya using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pagaya charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pagaya Technologies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pagaya Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 20.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05, mean absolute percentage error of 1.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pagaya Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pagaya Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pagaya Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
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Pagaya Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pagaya Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pagaya Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.42 and 25.30, respectively. We have considered Pagaya Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pagaya Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pagaya Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.689 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0542 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0446 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 64.3058 |
Predictive Modules for Pagaya Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pagaya Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Pagaya Technologies After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Pagaya Technologies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Pagaya Technologies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Pagaya Technologies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Pagaya Technologies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Pagaya Technologies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Pagaya Technologies' historical news coverage. Pagaya Technologies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 4.44, respectively. We have considered Pagaya Technologies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Pagaya Technologies is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Pagaya Technologies is based on 3 months time horizon.
Pagaya Technologies Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Pagaya Technologies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pagaya Technologies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pagaya Technologies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 4.44 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
22.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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Pagaya Technologies Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of January Pagaya Technologies is traded for 22.08. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.02. Pagaya is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.35%. %. The volatility of related hype on Pagaya Technologies is about 9250.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.10. About 12.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Pagaya Technologies was at this time reported as 5.47. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.05. Pagaya Technologies recorded a loss per share of 2.76. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:12 split on the 8th of March 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pagaya Technologies to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Pagaya Stock please use our How to Invest in Pagaya Technologies guide.Pagaya Technologies Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Pagaya Technologies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Pagaya Technologies' future price movements. Getting to know how Pagaya Technologies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Pagaya Technologies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NTCT | NetScout Systems | 0.22 | 6 per month | 1.68 | (0.01) | 2.52 | (2.83) | 11.36 | |
| MQ | Marqeta | 0.04 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.24 | (3.28) | 14.05 | |
| TDC | Teradata Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.53 | 0.12 | 3.55 | (3.66) | 36.67 | |
| PAYO | Payoneer Global | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.97 | (3.66) | 9.39 | |
| EVTC | Evertec | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.94 | (3.16) | 9.49 | |
| FIVN | Five9 Inc | 0.22 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.42 | (6.18) | 13.99 | |
| EVCM | EverCommerce | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.77 | 0.03 | 4.96 | (5.45) | 22.27 | |
| RAMP | Liveramp Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.04 | (3.10) | 13.31 | |
| CSGS | CSG Systems International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.63 | (0.59) | 15.33 | |
| CXM | Sprinklr | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.65 | (3.99) | 10.05 |
Other Forecasting Options for Pagaya Technologies
For every potential investor in Pagaya, whether a beginner or expert, Pagaya Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pagaya Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pagaya. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pagaya Technologies' price trends.Pagaya Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pagaya Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pagaya Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pagaya Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pagaya Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pagaya Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pagaya Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pagaya Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pagaya Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Pagaya Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pagaya Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pagaya Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pagaya stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.44 | |||
| Variance | 19.71 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Pagaya Technologies
The number of cover stories for Pagaya Technologies depends on current market conditions and Pagaya Technologies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Pagaya Technologies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Pagaya Technologies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Pagaya Technologies Short Properties
Pagaya Technologies' future price predictability will typically decrease when Pagaya Technologies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Pagaya Technologies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Pagaya Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pagaya Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 70.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 195.7 M |
Additional Tools for Pagaya Stock Analysis
When running Pagaya Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Pagaya Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Pagaya Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Pagaya Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Pagaya Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Pagaya Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Pagaya Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.