Plby Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| PLBY Stock | USD 1.74 0.00 0.00% |
Plby Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Plby's share price is approaching 49 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Plby, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.005 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.15) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.0733 | Wall Street Target Price 2.5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.02) |
Using Plby hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Plby Group from the perspective of Plby response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Plby using Plby's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Plby using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Plby's stock price.
Plby Implied Volatility | 1.49 |
Plby's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Plby Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Plby's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Plby stock will not fluctuate a lot when Plby's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Plby Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.45. Plby after-hype prediction price | USD 1.82 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Plby to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Plby Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Plby's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Plby's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Plby stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Plby's open interest, investors have to compare it to Plby's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Plby is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Plby. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Plby Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Plby price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Plby using various technical indicators. When you analyze Plby charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Plby Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Plby Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.45.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Plby Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Plby's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Plby Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Plby | Plby Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Plby Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Plby's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Plby's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 7.08, respectively. We have considered Plby's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Plby stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Plby stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.0459 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0112 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0754 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0408 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.4475 |
Predictive Modules for Plby
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Plby Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Plby After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Plby at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Plby or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Plby, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Plby Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Plby's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Plby's historical news coverage. Plby's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.09 and 7.16, respectively. We have considered Plby's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Plby is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Plby Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Plby Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Plby is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Plby backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Plby, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.71 | 5.34 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 13 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.74 | 1.82 | 0.55 |
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Plby Hype Timeline
Plby Group is at this time traded for 1.74. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Plby is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 1.82. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.55%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.71%. The volatility of related hype on Plby is about 12714.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.71. About 19.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.31. Plby Group recorded a loss per share of 0.3. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 13 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Plby to cross-verify your projections.Plby Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Plby's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Plby's future price movements. Getting to know how Plby's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Plby may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CLAR | Clarus Corp | (0.04) | 4 per month | 2.29 | 0.06 | 4.42 | (3.78) | 18.58 | |
| NOMA | NOMADAR Corp Class | (0.1) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 14.27 | (15.46) | 41.91 | |
| COOK | Traeger | (0.05) | 8 per month | 4.98 | 0.05 | 10.99 | (9.80) | 37.58 | |
| VRM | Vroom Common Stock | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 10.29 | (7.54) | 22.81 | |
| GDHG | Golden Heaven Group | (0.29) | 35 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 7.61 | (10.54) | 34.10 | |
| CJET | Chijet Motor Company | (0.12) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.44) | 7.89 | (20.59) | 67.78 | |
| FOSL | Fossil Group | (0.16) | 8 per month | 4.49 | 0.12 | 9.05 | (9.09) | 26.80 | |
| AKA | AKA Brands Holding | 0.33 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 6.64 | (5.73) | 22.74 | |
| FNKO | Funko Inc | (0.01) | 8 per month | 2.90 | 0.13 | 10.69 | (5.35) | 19.90 | |
| SNBR | Sleep Number Corp | 0.02 | 11 per month | 3.92 | 0.14 | 13.66 | (7.65) | 26.77 |
Other Forecasting Options for Plby
For every potential investor in Plby, whether a beginner or expert, Plby's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Plby Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Plby. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Plby's price trends.Plby Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Plby stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Plby could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Plby by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Plby Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Plby stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Plby shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Plby stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Plby Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.089 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.83 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.8 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.17 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.09) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 49.18 |
Plby Risk Indicators
The analysis of Plby's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Plby's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting plby stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.76 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.19 | |||
| Variance | 26.95 | |||
| Downside Variance | 20.88 | |||
| Semi Variance | 14.17 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.70) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Plby
The number of cover stories for Plby depends on current market conditions and Plby's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Plby is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Plby's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Plby Short Properties
Plby's future price predictability will typically decrease when Plby's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Plby Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Plby's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Plby's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 76 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 30.9 M |
Additional Tools for Plby Stock Analysis
When running Plby's price analysis, check to measure Plby's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Plby is operating at the current time. Most of Plby's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Plby's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Plby's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Plby to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.