Palantir Technologies Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PLTR Stock | USD 61.35 0.77 1.24% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Palantir Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 63.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 105.63. Palantir Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Palantir Technologies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Palantir Technologies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Palantir Technologies fundamentals over time.
Palantir |
Open Interest Against 2024-11-22 Palantir Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Palantir Technologies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Palantir Technologies' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Palantir Technologies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Palantir Technologies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Palantir Technologies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Palantir Technologies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Palantir. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Palantir Technologies Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Palantir Technologies' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2019-03-31 | Previous Quarter 512.7 M | Current Value 768.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 1.1 B |
Palantir Technologies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 22nd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Palantir Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 63.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.73, mean absolute percentage error of 5.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 105.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Palantir Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Palantir Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Palantir Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Palantir Technologies | Palantir Technologies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Palantir Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Palantir Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Palantir Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 59.59 and 68.27, respectively. We have considered Palantir Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Palantir Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Palantir Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.8626 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.7317 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0402 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 105.6307 |
Predictive Modules for Palantir Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Palantir Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Palantir Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Palantir Technologies
For every potential investor in Palantir, whether a beginner or expert, Palantir Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Palantir Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Palantir. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Palantir Technologies' price trends.Palantir Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Palantir Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Palantir Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Palantir Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Palantir Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Palantir Technologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Palantir Technologies' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Palantir Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Palantir Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Palantir Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Palantir Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Palantir Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Palantir Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Palantir Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Palantir Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting palantir stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.55 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.28 | |||
| Variance | 18.34 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.47 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.34 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.06) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Palantir Technologies
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Palantir Technologies position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Palantir Technologies will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Palantir Stock
Moving against Palantir Stock
| 0.92 | VHAI | VHAI | PairCorr |
| 0.8 | VRAR | Glimpse Group | PairCorr |
| 0.73 | MQ | Marqeta | PairCorr |
| 0.55 | VRNT | Verint Systems | PairCorr |
| 0.5 | FAAS | DigiAsia Corp Symbol Change | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Palantir Technologies could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Palantir Technologies when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Palantir Technologies - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Palantir Technologies to buy it.
The correlation of Palantir Technologies is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Palantir Technologies moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Palantir Technologies moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Palantir Technologies can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Palantir Stock Analysis
When running Palantir Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Palantir Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Palantir Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Palantir Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Palantir Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Palantir Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Palantir Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.