Plexus Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PLXS Stock | USD 162.01 2.38 1.49% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Plexus Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 150.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 146.56. Plexus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Plexus |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Plexus Corp's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1985-09-30 | Previous Quarter 269.9 M | Current Value 345.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 146.6 M |
Plexus Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Plexus Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 150.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.40, mean absolute percentage error of 12.83, and the sum of the absolute errors of 146.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Plexus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Plexus Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Plexus Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
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Plexus Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Plexus Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Plexus Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 147.92 and 152.12, respectively. We have considered Plexus Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Plexus Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Plexus Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.662 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.4026 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0163 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 146.559 |
Predictive Modules for Plexus Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Plexus Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Plexus Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Plexus Corp
For every potential investor in Plexus, whether a beginner or expert, Plexus Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Plexus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Plexus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Plexus Corp's price trends.Plexus Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Plexus Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Plexus Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Plexus Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Plexus Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Plexus Corp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Plexus Corp's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Plexus Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Plexus Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Plexus Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Plexus Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Plexus Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Plexus Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Plexus Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Plexus Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting plexus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.11 | |||
| Variance | 4.43 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.56 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.47 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for Plexus Stock Analysis
When running Plexus Corp's price analysis, check to measure Plexus Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Plexus Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Plexus Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Plexus Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Plexus Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Plexus Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.