Playa Hotels Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PLYADelisted Stock | USD 13.48 0.01 0.07% |
Playa Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Playa Hotels stock prices and determine the direction of Playa Hotels Resorts's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Playa Hotels' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of Playa Hotels' stock price is about 61 indicating that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Playa, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Playa Hotels hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Playa Hotels Resorts from the perspective of Playa Hotels response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Playa Hotels Resorts on the next trading day is expected to be 13.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.90. Playa Hotels after-hype prediction price | USD 13.48 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Playa |
Playa Hotels Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Playa price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Playa using various technical indicators. When you analyze Playa charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Playa Hotels Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Playa Hotels Resorts on the next trading day is expected to be 13.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0006, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.90.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Playa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Playa Hotels' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Playa Hotels Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Playa Hotels | Playa Hotels Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Playa Hotels stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Playa Hotels stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.7141 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0147 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0011 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.8952 |
Predictive Modules for Playa Hotels
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Playa Hotels Resorts. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Playa Hotels' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Playa Hotels After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Playa Hotels at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Playa Hotels or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Playa Hotels, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Playa Hotels Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Playa Hotels' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Playa Hotels' historical news coverage. Playa Hotels' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.48 and 13.48, respectively. We have considered Playa Hotels' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Playa Hotels is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Playa Hotels Resorts is based on 3 months time horizon.
Playa Hotels Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Playa Hotels is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Playa Hotels backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Playa Hotels, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
13.48 | 13.48 | 0.00 |
|
Playa Hotels Hype Timeline
Playa Hotels Resorts is at this time traded for 13.48. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Playa is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Playa Hotels is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.48. About 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Playa Hotels was at this time reported as 4.31. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in services.Playa Hotels Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Playa Hotels' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Playa Hotels' future price movements. Getting to know how Playa Hotels' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Playa Hotels may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| EVRI | Everi Holdings | (0.13) | 2 per month | 0.23 | (0.02) | 0.73 | (0.36) | 2.10 | |
| DESP | Despegar Corp | 0.00 | 7 per month | 0.57 | (0.10) | 0.84 | (0.42) | 3.71 | |
| TA | TravelCenters Of America | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| NGMS | Neogames SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SHCO | Soho House Co | (0.01) | 8 per month | 1.62 | (0.03) | 1.13 | (1.36) | 12.23 | |
| ROVR | Rover Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| AGS | PlayAGS | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.29 | (0.10) | 0.49 | (0.50) | 1.85 | |
| GEAR | Revelyst | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TANNI | TravelCenters Of America | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Playa Hotels Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Playa Hotels stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Playa Hotels could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Playa Hotels by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Playa Hotels Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Playa Hotels stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Playa Hotels shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Playa Hotels stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Playa Hotels Resorts entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Playa Hotels Risk Indicators
The analysis of Playa Hotels' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Playa Hotels' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting playa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0986 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.167 | |||
| Variance | 0.0279 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0381 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.16) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Playa Hotels
The number of cover stories for Playa Hotels depends on current market conditions and Playa Hotels' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Playa Hotels is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Playa Hotels' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Playa Hotels Short Properties
Playa Hotels' future price predictability will typically decrease when Playa Hotels' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Playa Hotels Resorts often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Playa Hotels' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Playa Hotels' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 131.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 189.3 M |
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in services. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Other Consideration for investing in Playa Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Playa Hotels Resorts check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Playa Hotels' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
| Balance Of Power Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios | |
| Risk-Return Analysis View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume | |
| Portfolio Rebalancing Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets | |
| USA ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA | |
| Analyst Advice Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories | |
| Latest Portfolios Quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios | |
| Portfolio Analyzer Portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine | |
| Global Correlations Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets | |
| Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum |