Pakistan Oilfields Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| POL Stock | 638.91 4.36 0.68% |
Pakistan Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the value of rsi of Pakistan Oilfields' share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Pakistan Oilfields hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Pakistan Oilfields from the perspective of Pakistan Oilfields response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pakistan Oilfields on the next trading day is expected to be 638.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 293.73. Pakistan Oilfields after-hype prediction price | PKR 638.91 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Pakistan |
Pakistan Oilfields Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Pakistan price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pakistan using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pakistan charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pakistan Oilfields Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pakistan Oilfields on the next trading day is expected to be 638.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.90, mean absolute percentage error of 67.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 293.73.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pakistan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pakistan Oilfields' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pakistan Oilfields Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Pakistan Oilfields | Pakistan Oilfields Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Pakistan Oilfields Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pakistan Oilfields' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pakistan Oilfields' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 637.61 and 640.21, respectively. We have considered Pakistan Oilfields' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pakistan Oilfields stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pakistan Oilfields stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.4833 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1975 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.8955 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0077 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 293.73 |
Predictive Modules for Pakistan Oilfields
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pakistan Oilfields. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Pakistan Oilfields After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Pakistan Oilfields at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Pakistan Oilfields or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Pakistan Oilfields, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Pakistan Oilfields Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Pakistan Oilfields' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Pakistan Oilfields' historical news coverage. Pakistan Oilfields' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 637.61 and 640.21, respectively. We have considered Pakistan Oilfields' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Pakistan Oilfields is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Pakistan Oilfields is based on 3 months time horizon.
Pakistan Oilfields Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Pakistan Oilfields is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pakistan Oilfields backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pakistan Oilfields, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
638.91 | 638.91 | 0.00 |
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Pakistan Oilfields Hype Timeline
Pakistan Oilfields is at this time traded for 638.91on Karachi Stock Exchange of Pakistan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Pakistan is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.07%. %. The volatility of related hype on Pakistan Oilfields is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 638.91. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pakistan Oilfields to cross-verify your projections.Pakistan Oilfields Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Pakistan Oilfields' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Pakistan Oilfields' future price movements. Getting to know how Pakistan Oilfields' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Pakistan Oilfields may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HBL | Habib Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.90 | 0.1 | 2.49 | (1.55) | 7.55 | |
| NBP | National Bank of | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.52 | 0.14 | 3.04 | (1.64) | 13.34 | |
| UBL | United Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.58 | 0.20 | 3.06 | (1.67) | 12.11 | |
| MCB | MCB Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.68 | 0.14 | 2.97 | (1.62) | 10.59 | |
| ABL | Allied Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.89 | 0.08 | 2.46 | (1.66) | 6.11 | |
| MEBL | Meezan Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.14 | 0.11 | 3.25 | (2.33) | 7.65 | |
| BAHL | Bank Al Habib | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.46 | (1.41) | 7.06 | |
| BAFL | Bank Alfalah | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.10 | 0.16 | 2.82 | (2.25) | 6.57 | |
| AKBL | Askari Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.20 | 0.0002 | 3.89 | (3.23) | 14.48 | |
| HMB | Habib Metropolitan Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.94 | 0.08 | 3.18 | (1.99) | 8.65 |
Other Forecasting Options for Pakistan Oilfields
For every potential investor in Pakistan, whether a beginner or expert, Pakistan Oilfields' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pakistan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pakistan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pakistan Oilfields' price trends.Pakistan Oilfields Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pakistan Oilfields stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pakistan Oilfields could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pakistan Oilfields by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pakistan Oilfields Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pakistan Oilfields stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pakistan Oilfields shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pakistan Oilfields stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pakistan Oilfields entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0116 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.58) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 640.75 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 640.14 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 7.5 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (4.02) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (4.36) |
Pakistan Oilfields Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pakistan Oilfields' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pakistan Oilfields' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pakistan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7913 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8782 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Variance | 1.69 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.03 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7712 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.85) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Pakistan Oilfields
The number of cover stories for Pakistan Oilfields depends on current market conditions and Pakistan Oilfields' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Pakistan Oilfields is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Pakistan Oilfields' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Pakistan Oilfields Short Properties
Pakistan Oilfields' future price predictability will typically decrease when Pakistan Oilfields' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Pakistan Oilfields often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Pakistan Oilfields' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pakistan Oilfields' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 283.9 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 14.2 B |
Additional Tools for Pakistan Stock Analysis
When running Pakistan Oilfields' price analysis, check to measure Pakistan Oilfields' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Pakistan Oilfields is operating at the current time. Most of Pakistan Oilfields' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Pakistan Oilfields' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Pakistan Oilfields' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Pakistan Oilfields to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.