Paramount Resources Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| POU Stock | CAD 25.43 0.01 0.04% |
Paramount Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Paramount Resources' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Paramount Resources' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Paramount Resources fundamentals over time.
As of today, The value of relative strength index of Paramount Resources' share price is at 59 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Paramount Resources, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.95) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.48 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.28 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.66 | Wall Street Target Price 27.7222 |
Using Paramount Resources hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Paramount Resources from the perspective of Paramount Resources response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Paramount Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 25.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.57. Paramount Resources after-hype prediction price | CAD 28.77 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Paramount |
Paramount Resources Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Paramount price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Paramount using various technical indicators. When you analyze Paramount charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Paramount Resources Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Paramount Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 25.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 0.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.57.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Paramount Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Paramount Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Paramount Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Paramount Resources | Paramount Resources Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Paramount Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Paramount Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Paramount Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.60 and 27.26, respectively. We have considered Paramount Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Paramount Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Paramount Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.9618 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0591 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4096 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0171 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.575 |
Predictive Modules for Paramount Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Paramount Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Paramount Resources After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Paramount Resources at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Paramount Resources or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Paramount Resources, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Paramount Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Paramount Resources' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Paramount Resources' historical news coverage. Paramount Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.89 and 30.60, respectively. We have considered Paramount Resources' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Paramount Resources is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Paramount Resources is based on 3 months time horizon.
Paramount Resources Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Paramount Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Paramount Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Paramount Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 1.83 | 3.34 | 0.39 | 15 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 15 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
25.43 | 28.77 | 13.13 |
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Paramount Resources Hype Timeline
Paramount Resources is at this time traded for 25.43on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 3.34, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.39. Paramount is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 28.77 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 10.41%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 13.13%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Paramount Resources is about 89.05%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.82. Paramount Resources has accumulated 201.9 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.47, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Paramount Resources has a current ratio of 0.6, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Paramount Resources until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Paramount Resources' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Paramount Resources sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Paramount to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Paramount Resources' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 15 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Paramount Resources to cross-verify your projections.Paramount Resources Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Paramount Resources' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Paramount Resources' future price movements. Getting to know how Paramount Resources' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Paramount Resources may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ATH | Athabasca Oil Corp | (0.10) | 6 per month | 1.98 | 0.1 | 3.35 | (2.93) | 11.96 | |
| NVA | NuVista Energy | 0.02 | 8 per month | 0.89 | 0.12 | 2.21 | (1.70) | 6.79 | |
| TVE | Tamarack Valley Energy | (0.05) | 7 per month | 1.59 | 0.28 | 3.74 | (2.63) | 8.73 | |
| BTE | Baytex Energy Corp | 2.09 | 6 per month | 1.96 | 0.17 | 4.58 | (3.39) | 19.59 | |
| PEY | Peyto ExplorationDevelopment Corp | 0.21 | 5 per month | 1.49 | 0.13 | 3.55 | (2.30) | 10.43 | |
| IPCO | International Petroleum Corp | 0.55 | 5 per month | 1.92 | 0.13 | 5.33 | (3.49) | 13.04 | |
| TVK | Terravest Capital | 17.58 | 2 per month | 2.16 | (0.01) | 3.21 | (3.46) | 27.73 | |
| TWM | Tidewater Midstream and | 0.20 | 4 per month | 2.67 | (0) | 5.42 | (4.35) | 14.54 | |
| FRU | Freehold Royalties | (0.12) | 9 per month | 0.87 | 0.18 | 2.22 | (1.65) | 6.50 | |
| TPZ | Topaz Energy Corp | 0.17 | 4 per month | 0.93 | 0.16 | 2.16 | (1.66) | 5.31 |
Other Forecasting Options for Paramount Resources
For every potential investor in Paramount, whether a beginner or expert, Paramount Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Paramount Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Paramount. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Paramount Resources' price trends.Paramount Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Paramount Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Paramount Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Paramount Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Paramount Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Paramount Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Paramount Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Paramount Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Paramount Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Paramount Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of Paramount Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Paramount Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting paramount stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Variance | 3.14 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.32 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.40) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Paramount Resources
The number of cover stories for Paramount Resources depends on current market conditions and Paramount Resources' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Paramount Resources is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Paramount Resources' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Paramount Resources Short Properties
Paramount Resources' future price predictability will typically decrease when Paramount Resources' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Paramount Resources often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Paramount Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Paramount Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 149.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.4 M |
Other Information on Investing in Paramount Stock
Paramount Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether Paramount Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Paramount with respect to the benefits of owning Paramount Resources security.