Ammo Preferred Preferred Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| POWWP Preferred Stock | USD 24.21 0.20 0.83% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ammo Preferred on the next trading day is expected to be 24.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.61. Ammo Preferred Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the value of rsi of Ammo Preferred's share price is below 20 indicating that the preferred stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Ammo Preferred hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ammo Preferred from the perspective of Ammo Preferred response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ammo Preferred on the next trading day is expected to be 24.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.61. Ammo Preferred after-hype prediction price | USD 24.21 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as preferred stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Ammo |
Ammo Preferred Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ammo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ammo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ammo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ammo Preferred Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ammo Preferred on the next trading day is expected to be 24.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ammo Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ammo Preferred's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ammo Preferred Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ammo Preferred | Ammo Preferred Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ammo Preferred Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ammo Preferred's Preferred Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ammo Preferred's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.70 and 24.71, respectively. We have considered Ammo Preferred's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ammo Preferred preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ammo Preferred preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.8414 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0116 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.092 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0038 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.6124 |
Predictive Modules for Ammo Preferred
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ammo Preferred. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ammo Preferred's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ammo Preferred After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ammo Preferred at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ammo Preferred or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Preferred Stock prices, such as prices of Ammo Preferred, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ammo Preferred Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ammo Preferred's preferred stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ammo Preferred's historical news coverage. Ammo Preferred's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.71 and 24.71, respectively. We have considered Ammo Preferred's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ammo Preferred is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ammo Preferred is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ammo Preferred Preferred Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ammo Preferred is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ammo Preferred backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Preferred Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ammo Preferred, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 0.50 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 31 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 31 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
24.21 | 24.21 | 0.00 |
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Ammo Preferred Hype Timeline
Ammo Preferred is at this time traded for 24.21. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Ammo is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 14.75%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ammo Preferred is about 47.44%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.25. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 110.78. Ammo Preferred last dividend was issued on the 29th of November 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 31 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ammo Preferred to cross-verify your projections.Ammo Preferred Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ammo Preferred's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ammo Preferred's future price movements. Getting to know how Ammo Preferred's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ammo Preferred may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AIR | AAR Corp | (10.19) | 8 per month | 1.50 | 0.16 | 4.20 | (2.19) | 9.63 | |
| SXI | Standex International | 10.48 | 10 per month | 2.08 | (0.02) | 3.49 | (2.82) | 12.69 | |
| TNET | TriNet Group | 4.90 | 15 per month | 2.18 | (0) | 3.69 | (3.30) | 9.52 | |
| HURN | Huron Consulting Group | 3.39 | 26 per month | 1.16 | 0.06 | 2.39 | (2.24) | 14.24 | |
| LUNR | Intuitive Machines | 0.91 | 7 per month | 5.19 | 0.11 | 11.71 | (8.49) | 46.43 | |
| MGRC | McGrath RentCorp | 4.90 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.75 | (2.02) | 7.75 | |
| RXO | RXO Inc | (0.71) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 6.09 | (7.77) | 25.70 | |
| UNF | Unifirst | (3.69) | 11 per month | 1.68 | 0.09 | 2.91 | (2.50) | 19.18 | |
| AMSC | American Superconductor | 0.18 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.56 | (7.16) | 47.39 | |
| AMPX | Amprius Technologies | 0.37 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 10.55 | (9.76) | 29.24 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ammo Preferred
For every potential investor in Ammo, whether a beginner or expert, Ammo Preferred's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ammo Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ammo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ammo Preferred's price trends.Ammo Preferred Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ammo Preferred preferred stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ammo Preferred could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ammo Preferred by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ammo Preferred Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ammo Preferred preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ammo Preferred shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ammo Preferred preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ammo Preferred entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ammo Preferred Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ammo Preferred's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ammo Preferred's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ammo preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3952 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3568 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5023 | |||
| Variance | 0.2523 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.2628 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1273 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ammo Preferred
The number of cover stories for Ammo Preferred depends on current market conditions and Ammo Preferred's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ammo Preferred is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ammo Preferred's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ammo Preferred Short Properties
Ammo Preferred's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ammo Preferred's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ammo Preferred often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ammo Preferred's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ammo Preferred's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 116.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 23.3 M |
Additional Tools for Ammo Preferred Stock Analysis
When running Ammo Preferred's price analysis, check to measure Ammo Preferred's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ammo Preferred is operating at the current time. Most of Ammo Preferred's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ammo Preferred's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ammo Preferred's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ammo Preferred to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.