Prairie Provident Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

PPR Stock  CAD 0.55  0.02  3.51%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Prairie Provident Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 0.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.62. Prairie Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Prairie Provident's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Prairie Provident's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Prairie Provident fundamentals over time.
As of today, the value of relative strength index of Prairie Provident's share price is approaching 44 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Prairie Provident, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 44

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Prairie Provident's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Prairie Provident Resources, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Prairie Provident's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.88)
Wall Street Target Price
0.14
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.417
Using Prairie Provident hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Prairie Provident Resources from the perspective of Prairie Provident response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Prairie Provident Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 0.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.62.

Prairie Provident after-hype prediction price

    
  CAD 0.55  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Prairie Provident to cross-verify your projections.

Prairie Provident Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Prairie price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Prairie using various technical indicators. When you analyze Prairie charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Prairie Provident works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Prairie Provident Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Prairie Provident Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 0.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.62.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Prairie Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Prairie Provident's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Prairie Provident Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Prairie ProvidentPrairie Provident Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Prairie Provident Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Prairie Provident's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Prairie Provident's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 15.28, respectively. We have considered Prairie Provident's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.55
0.56
Expected Value
15.28
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Prairie Provident stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Prairie Provident stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0071
MADMean absolute deviation0.077
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.111
SAESum of the absolute errors4.6223
When Prairie Provident Resources prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Prairie Provident Resources trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Prairie Provident observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Prairie Provident

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Prairie Provident. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.030.5515.15
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.030.5315.13
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details

Prairie Provident After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Prairie Provident at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Prairie Provident or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Prairie Provident, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Prairie Provident Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Prairie Provident's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Prairie Provident's historical news coverage. Prairie Provident's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.03 and 15.15, respectively. We have considered Prairie Provident's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
0.55
0.55
After-hype Price
15.15
Upside
Prairie Provident is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Prairie Provident is based on 3 months time horizon.

Prairie Provident Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Prairie Provident is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Prairie Provident backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Prairie Provident, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.50 
14.72
  0.08 
 0.00  
7 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0.55
0.55
0.00 
9,813  
Notes

Prairie Provident Hype Timeline

Prairie Provident is at this time traded for 0.55on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Prairie is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.5%. %. The volatility of related hype on Prairie Provident is about 154947.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.55. About 83.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.13. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Prairie Provident recorded a loss per share of 0.01. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of November 2015. The firm had 1:2 split on the 20th of May 2022. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in about 7 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Prairie Provident to cross-verify your projections.

Prairie Provident Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Prairie Provident's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Prairie Provident's future price movements. Getting to know how Prairie Provident's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Prairie Provident may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AVNAvanti Energy 0.02 2 per month 4.94  0.02  12.50 (10.34) 36.66 
WILWilton Resources(0.01)4 per month 5.30  0.02  15.79 (10.00) 41.98 
PEIProspera Energy 0.00 6 per month 0.00 (0.01) 20.00 (16.67) 45.00 
SOUSouthern Energy Corp 0.04 1 per month 5.27  0.06  14.29 (12.50) 26.79 
TAOTAG Oil 0.01 3 per month 0.00 (0.02) 11.11 (10.00) 58.33 
ROCKRockridge Resources 0.07 1 per month 4.55  0.18  17.01 (7.53) 106.37 
GIIIGen III Oil(0.04)1 per month 5.04  0.03  13.33 (10.53) 26.79 
SDIStampede Drilling(0.01)3 per month 4.02 (0.01) 8.33 (7.69) 30.95 
VOValOre Metals Corp 0.02 5 per month 0.00 (0.05) 10.00 (9.09) 25.76 
JEVJericho Oil Corp(0)2 per month 0.00 (0.11) 11.11 (13.33) 39.80 

Other Forecasting Options for Prairie Provident

For every potential investor in Prairie, whether a beginner or expert, Prairie Provident's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Prairie Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Prairie. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Prairie Provident's price trends.

Prairie Provident Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Prairie Provident stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Prairie Provident could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Prairie Provident by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Prairie Provident Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Prairie Provident stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Prairie Provident shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Prairie Provident stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Prairie Provident Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Prairie Provident Risk Indicators

The analysis of Prairie Provident's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Prairie Provident's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting prairie stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Prairie Provident

The number of cover stories for Prairie Provident depends on current market conditions and Prairie Provident's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Prairie Provident is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Prairie Provident's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Prairie Provident Short Properties

Prairie Provident's future price predictability will typically decrease when Prairie Provident's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Prairie Provident Resources often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Prairie Provident's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Prairie Provident's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding922.9 K
Cash And Short Term Investments4.7 M

Other Information on Investing in Prairie Stock

Prairie Provident financial ratios help investors to determine whether Prairie Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Prairie with respect to the benefits of owning Prairie Provident security.