Profoto Holding Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PRFO Stock | 10.75 0.15 1.42% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Profoto Holding AB on the next trading day is expected to be 10.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.20. Profoto Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of Profoto Holding's share price is approaching 49 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Profoto Holding, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Profoto Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Profoto Holding AB from the perspective of Profoto Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Profoto Holding AB on the next trading day is expected to be 10.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.20. Profoto Holding after-hype prediction price | SEK 10.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Profoto |
Profoto Holding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Profoto price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Profoto using various technical indicators. When you analyze Profoto charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Profoto Holding Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Profoto Holding AB on the next trading day is expected to be 10.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.20.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Profoto Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Profoto Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Profoto Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Profoto Holding | Profoto Holding Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Profoto Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Profoto Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Profoto Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.40 and 14.10, respectively. We have considered Profoto Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Profoto Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Profoto Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.9224 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0197 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2492 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0245 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.2 |
Predictive Modules for Profoto Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Profoto Holding AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Profoto Holding After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Profoto Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Profoto Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Profoto Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Profoto Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Profoto Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Profoto Holding's historical news coverage. Profoto Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.40 and 14.10, respectively. We have considered Profoto Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Profoto Holding is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Profoto Holding AB is based on 3 months time horizon.
Profoto Holding Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Profoto Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Profoto Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Profoto Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 3.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
10.75 | 10.75 | 0.00 |
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Profoto Holding Hype Timeline
Profoto Holding AB is at this time traded for 10.75on Stockholm Exchange of Sweden. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Profoto is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Profoto Holding is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.75. About 68.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company last dividend was issued on the 6th of May 2022. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Profoto Holding to cross-verify your projections.Profoto Holding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Profoto Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Profoto Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how Profoto Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Profoto Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UTG | Unlimited Travel Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.80 | (4.27) | 13.66 | |
| BOAT | Nimbus Group AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.93 | (4.91) | 13.08 | |
| SODER | Soder Sportfiske AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.37 | (5.93) | 15.66 | |
| LAMM-B | Lammhults Design Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.99 | (5.38) | 20.54 | |
| ATIC | Actic Group AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.43 | 0.04 | 9.25 | (5.99) | 20.13 | |
| OBAB | Online Brands Nordic | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.65 | 0.11 | 7.90 | (4.91) | 22.61 | |
| OXE | OXE Marine AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 5.26 | (6.82) | 16.23 | |
| USWE | USWE Sports AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.93 | (5.52) | 14.24 | |
| ELON | Elon AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.71 | 0.03 | 5.57 | (3.09) | 15.36 | |
| CDON | CDON AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.72 | 0.03 | 6.06 | (5.35) | 15.26 |
Other Forecasting Options for Profoto Holding
For every potential investor in Profoto, whether a beginner or expert, Profoto Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Profoto Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Profoto. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Profoto Holding's price trends.Profoto Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Profoto Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Profoto Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Profoto Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Profoto Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Profoto Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Profoto Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Profoto Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Profoto Holding AB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Profoto Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Profoto Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Profoto Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting profoto stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.32 | |||
| Variance | 11.02 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Profoto Holding
The number of cover stories for Profoto Holding depends on current market conditions and Profoto Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Profoto Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Profoto Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Profoto Holding Short Properties
Profoto Holding's future price predictability will typically decrease when Profoto Holding's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Profoto Holding AB often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Profoto Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Profoto Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 31.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 206 M |
Additional Tools for Profoto Stock Analysis
When running Profoto Holding's price analysis, check to measure Profoto Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Profoto Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Profoto Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Profoto Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Profoto Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Profoto Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.