Permanent Portfolio Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Permanent Portfolio Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Permanent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Permanent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Permanent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. Triple exponential smoothing for Permanent Portfolio - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Permanent Portfolio prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Permanent Portfolio price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Permanent Portfolio Class.

Permanent Portfolio Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Permanent Portfolio Class on the next trading day is expected to be 83.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.28.

Permanent Portfolio Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Permanent Portfolio

Permanent Portfolio Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Permanent Portfolio Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Permanent Portfolio mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Permanent Portfolio mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Permanent Portfolio observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Permanent Portfolio Class observations.

Predictive Modules for Permanent Portfolio

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Permanent Portfolio Class. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 64.06 64.79 91.55 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 74.91 85.87 86.60 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 72.65 78.42 84.20 Details

Permanent Portfolio After-Hype Price Density Analysis

Permanent Portfolio Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Permanent Portfolio Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Notes

Permanent Portfolio Hype Timeline

Permanent Portfolio Class is at this time traded for 83.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -18.44, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.66. Permanent is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 64.79. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 1.23%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -22.16%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.31%. The volatility of related hype on Permanent Portfolio is about 34.53%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 83.89. The company last dividend was issued on the 4th of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Permanent Portfolio to cross-verify your projections.

Permanent Portfolio Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for Permanent Portfolio

For every potential investor in Permanent, whether a beginner or expert, Permanent Portfolio's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Permanent Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Permanent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Permanent Portfolio's price trends.

Permanent Portfolio Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Permanent Portfolio Market Strength Events

Permanent Portfolio Risk Indicators

Story Coverage note for Permanent Portfolio

Other Macroaxis Stories

Other Information on Investing in Permanent Mutual Fund