Pason Systems Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| PSI Stock | CAD 12.07 0.23 1.87% |
Pason Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Pason Systems' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Pason Systems' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Pason Systems fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Pason Systems' share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.47) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.195 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.735 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.8675 | Wall Street Target Price 14.3 |
Using Pason Systems hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Pason Systems from the perspective of Pason Systems response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Pason Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 12.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.29. Pason Systems after-hype prediction price | CAD 12.07 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Pason |
Pason Systems Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Pason price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pason using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pason charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pason Systems Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Pason Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 12.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.29.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pason Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pason Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pason Systems Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Pason Systems | Pason Systems Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Pason Systems Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pason Systems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pason Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.82 and 13.58, respectively. We have considered Pason Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pason Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pason Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.7953 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1523 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0127 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.2906 |
Predictive Modules for Pason Systems
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pason Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Pason Systems After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Pason Systems at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Pason Systems or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Pason Systems, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Pason Systems Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Pason Systems' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Pason Systems' historical news coverage. Pason Systems' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.69 and 13.45, respectively. We have considered Pason Systems' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Pason Systems is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Pason Systems is based on 3 months time horizon.
Pason Systems Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Pason Systems is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pason Systems backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pason Systems, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.38 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 5 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.07 | 12.07 | 0.00 |
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Pason Systems Hype Timeline
Pason Systems is at this time traded for 12.07on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Pason is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Pason Systems is about 1160.75%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.08. About 50.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.94. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Pason Systems last dividend was issued on the 17th of December 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 26th of May 2006. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pason Systems to cross-verify your projections.Pason Systems Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Pason Systems' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Pason Systems' future price movements. Getting to know how Pason Systems' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Pason Systems may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TCW | Trican Well Service | 0.1 | 6 per month | 2.45 | 0.13 | 3.20 | (4.74) | 10.95 | |
| PD | Precision Drilling | 1.26 | 11 per month | 1.15 | 0.25 | 3.01 | (2.45) | 7.40 | |
| MATR | Mattr Corp | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.19 | (3.49) | 22.94 | |
| NOA | North American Construction | (0.20) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.90 | (3.92) | 11.39 | |
| TOT | Total Energy Services | 0.44 | 5 per month | 1.95 | 0.13 | 2.80 | (2.50) | 13.39 | |
| TNZ | Tenaz Energy Corp | (0.58) | 9 per month | 1.86 | 0.18 | 4.75 | (3.43) | 17.96 | |
| SGY | Surge Energy | (0.02) | 8 per month | 1.99 | 0.07 | 3.55 | (3.25) | 9.30 | |
| SNM | ShaMaran Petroleum Corp | 0.02 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.55 | (4.35) | 16.33 | |
| URE | Ur Energy | 0.04 | 5 per month | 3.95 | 0.02 | 7.18 | (6.56) | 15.47 |
Other Forecasting Options for Pason Systems
For every potential investor in Pason, whether a beginner or expert, Pason Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pason Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pason. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pason Systems' price trends.Pason Systems Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pason Systems stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pason Systems could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pason Systems by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pason Systems Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pason Systems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pason Systems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pason Systems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pason Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Pason Systems Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pason Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pason Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pason stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Variance | 1.81 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.05 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.82 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.08) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Pason Systems
The number of cover stories for Pason Systems depends on current market conditions and Pason Systems' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Pason Systems is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Pason Systems' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Pason Systems Short Properties
Pason Systems' future price predictability will typically decrease when Pason Systems' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Pason Systems often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Pason Systems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pason Systems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 79.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 80.8 M |
Other Information on Investing in Pason Stock
Pason Systems financial ratios help investors to determine whether Pason Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Pason with respect to the benefits of owning Pason Systems security.