PriceSmart Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PSMT Stock | USD 142.00 0.73 0.51% |
PriceSmart Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of PriceSmart's stock price is slightly above 63 indicating that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling PriceSmart, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using PriceSmart hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PriceSmart from the perspective of PriceSmart response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PriceSmart on the next trading day is expected to be 142.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.55. PriceSmart after-hype prediction price | USD 142.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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PriceSmart Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine PriceSmart price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PriceSmart using various technical indicators. When you analyze PriceSmart charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
PriceSmart Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PriceSmart on the next trading day is expected to be 142.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.59, mean absolute percentage error of 5.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.55.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PriceSmart Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PriceSmart's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
PriceSmart Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PriceSmart | PriceSmart Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
PriceSmart Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting PriceSmart's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PriceSmart's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 140.09 and 143.93, respectively. We have considered PriceSmart's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PriceSmart stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PriceSmart stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.0256 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3739 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5925 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0125 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 95.5509 |
Predictive Modules for PriceSmart
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PriceSmart. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.PriceSmart After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of PriceSmart at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PriceSmart or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of PriceSmart, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
PriceSmart Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting PriceSmart's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PriceSmart's historical news coverage. PriceSmart's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 140.08 and 143.92, respectively. We have considered PriceSmart's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
PriceSmart is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PriceSmart is based on 3 months time horizon.
PriceSmart Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PriceSmart is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PriceSmart backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PriceSmart, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 1.92 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
142.00 | 142.00 | 0.00 |
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PriceSmart Hype Timeline
PriceSmart is at this time traded for 142.00. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.02. PriceSmart is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.25%. %. The volatility of related hype on PriceSmart is about 2700.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 142.02. About 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of PriceSmart was at this time reported as 43.41. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.94. PriceSmart last dividend was issued on the 15th of August 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PriceSmart to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy PriceSmart Stock please use our How to Invest in PriceSmart guide.PriceSmart Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to PriceSmart's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PriceSmart's future price movements. Getting to know how PriceSmart's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PriceSmart may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BRBR | Bellring Brands LLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.42 | (6.93) | 20.81 | |
| ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | (0.52) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.21 | (3.54) | 31.43 | |
| AGRO | Adecoagro SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.39 | 0.08 | 4.63 | (3.39) | 11.00 | |
| TBBB | BBB Foods | 0.46 | 7 per month | 2.55 | 0.07 | 4.52 | (3.81) | 15.82 | |
| COTY | Coty Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.61 | (4.14) | 9.89 | |
| MZTI | The Marzetti | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.96 | 0.03 | 1.98 | (1.86) | 12.08 | |
| FIZZ | National Beverage Corp | (0.26) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.99 | (3.05) | 7.83 | |
| LRN | Stride Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.03 | 0.11 | 3.18 | (2.12) | 14.82 | |
| LAUR | Laureate Education | 0.96 | 9 per month | 1.95 | 0.07 | 3.64 | (2.34) | 18.76 |
Other Forecasting Options for PriceSmart
For every potential investor in PriceSmart, whether a beginner or expert, PriceSmart's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PriceSmart Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PriceSmart. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PriceSmart's price trends.PriceSmart Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PriceSmart stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PriceSmart could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PriceSmart by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PriceSmart Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PriceSmart stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PriceSmart shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PriceSmart stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PriceSmart entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2675.06 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.33) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 141.23 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 141.49 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.41 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.73) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 63.58 |
PriceSmart Risk Indicators
The analysis of PriceSmart's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PriceSmart's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pricesmart stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Variance | 3.68 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.18 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.42) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PriceSmart
The number of cover stories for PriceSmart depends on current market conditions and PriceSmart's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PriceSmart is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PriceSmart's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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PriceSmart Short Properties
PriceSmart's future price predictability will typically decrease when PriceSmart's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of PriceSmart often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential PriceSmart's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PriceSmart's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 325.3 M |
Additional Tools for PriceSmart Stock Analysis
When running PriceSmart's price analysis, check to measure PriceSmart's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PriceSmart is operating at the current time. Most of PriceSmart's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PriceSmart's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PriceSmart's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PriceSmart to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.